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【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月印度金融行业研究报告
【作者】：瑞士信贷
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：39
【目录或简介】：
Asset quality trends diverging: Indian banks’ asset quality trends are
diverging as evidenced by their recent 2Q results. While some banks
witnessed a 20-40% QoQ rise in NPLs, many others witnessed a contraction.
Retail NPL moderation was evident at private banks like HDFC Bank, ICICI
and Kotak Bank. Notably, the NPL formation did not emanate from some of
the often-viewed high risk sectors like real estate and textiles, but sources of
slippage were varied sectors like technology, chemicals and infrastructure.
■
Divergence in provisioning expenses: With divergence in NPL trends,
varied restructured asset levels and differing NPL coverage, we expect a
sharp divergence in provisioning expenses over the next few quarters. Credit
costs for private banks will moderate by 40-60 bp in FY11E from 1H10
levels, while they will rise by 20-60 bp for government banks.
■
Operating profit growth to pick up but net profits to be subdued: With a
strong margin upswing on the back of deposit re-pricing gains, we expect
healthy 33-40% growth in banks’ operating profits in FY11 even building in
higher provisioning. However, with rising rates, net profit growth for stateowned
banks shall be muted (1-5%) due to a lack of treasury profits.
■
Valuations in the Neutral zone: While earnings growth at private banks will
be strong, valuations at 2.4x book (top end of Asian financials range) already
reflect this. Valuations of government banks at 1.5x book are relatively more
attractive; however, these are at the top end of their historical trading band.
We therefore maintain Market Weight on the sector. HDFC Bank (O) and
Kotak (N) are our preferred plays for the expected moderation in credit
costs. We also like Axis (O) and Yes Bank (O). While, ICICI Bank (N) will
also witness a sharp contraction in retail provisions, risks on its corporate
book remain. Among the state-owned banks, we prefer smaller banks like
Bank of Baroda, Union Bank and Punjab National Bank which are trading at
a 20% discount to State Bank of India.
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