2010年1月印度金融行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月印度金融行业研究报告
        【作者】：瑞士信贷
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：48
        【目录或简介】：
Growth versus rates
We expect loan growth to accelerate from the current 11% to ~20% led by improved retail
demand, an expected pick-up in infrastructure capex and the expectation that Indian
banks will return to a high growth phase. The pick-up in credit demand on the back of
huge government borrowing needs will, however, put pressure on domestic liquidity, which
in turn is likely to further push up domestic bond yields. We build in a 60 bp rise in yields to
8.25% in March 2011E. However, risks from an inflation spike and stronger-thananticipated
monetary tightening should make a 9% yield a possibility. Rising bond yields
are not a reason enough to sell banks as we forecast operating profits to grow 30%+ over
the next two years on the back of a loan pick-up, rising margins and asset quality stability.
While net profit growth will be muted by a treasury profit downswing, historically banks’
performance is closely related to operating profits rather than net profits. Spiking bond
yields are, however, a risk to a sustained outperformance of the sector and we retain our
Market Weight on the sector. We like banks with a high capitalisation (well positioned to
benefit from the credit upswing) and high NPL coverage (lower earnings headwinds):
OUTPERFORM – HDFC Bank, Axis, PNB and Yes Bank. UNDERPERFORM – State
Bank of India
Credit upturn on anvil
Loan growth is expected to rise from the 11% YoY in 2009 to ~20% by end-2010 led by
acceleration in nominal GDP growth (14% in FY11 from 10% in FY10) and forecast 26%
growth in infrastructure capex to US$100 bn. Private sector infrastructure spending is
expected to rise 42% in FY11 to US$32 bn (from 11% in FY10). With the industrial
production growth now rebounding to the ~10% level and the working cycle contraction by
corporates likely behind us, we expect to see a credit demand recovery. The corporate
demand pick-up will also be supplemented by rising microfinance and retail penetration
(pick-ups in mortgage and auto demand should aid the revival in consumer credit).
Risk of “crowding-out”
The pick-up in credit demand on the back of huge government borrowing needs will put
pressure on domestic liquidity. Even as we expect fiscal deficit to narrow by about 2% of
GDP, government borrowing should be over US$100 bn or 7% of GDP in FY11E
(compared with US$41 bn in FY08) which may pre-empt 44% of incremental deposits.
Given the government borrowing requirement, we believe 18% deposit growth may be
able to support only 14% bank loan growth. Rising inflation will also limit RBI’s ability to
support the borrowing programme and our forecasts build in a 60 bp rise in yields to
8.25% in March 2011. However, we believe risks from an inflation spike and stronger-thananticipated
monetary tightening should make a 9% yield a possibility.
Conflict of growth versus rates
Rising bond yields are not a reason enough to sell all banks as we expect healthy 30%+
growth in operating profits over the next two years on the back of a pick-up in loans, rising
margin and stability in asset quality. However, net profit growth for the sector will be muted
by the treasury profit downswing; historically banks’ performance has been more closely
related to the operating profit trend rather than net profits. However, spiking bond yields
are a risk to a sustained accumulated outperformance of the sector. We therefore expect
bank stocks to be volatile in 2010 as both rates and growth issues come in focus. We like
banks with a high capitalisation (well positioned to benefit from the credit upswing) and
high NPL coverage (lower earnings headwinds). Indian private sector banks are very well
capitalised with tier-one levels at over 11%. With high capital adequacy positions, the
banks should benefit from the pick-up in loan growth. OUTPERFORM– HDFC Bank, Axis,
PNB and Yes Bank. UNDERPERFORM – State Bank of India.

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关键词：行业研究报告 研究报告 金融行业 行业研究 historically 金融 研究报告 行业 印度