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【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月新加坡银行业研究报告
【作者】：DMG&PARTNER证券
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：32
【目录或简介】：
BANKS NEUTRAL WEIGHT
Asset quality has stabilised
Post-results, UOB upgraded to BUY and DBS upgraded to NEUTRAL.
3Q09 banks’ earnings were above our expectations, and NPL ratios have also
stabilized. Whilst we expect loans growth to remain mild and core earnings to be
unexciting over the next few quarters, liquidity is a positive. We believe investor
interest would be focused on banks that have higher asset-quality, as there
remains the risk that the economic recovery may be mild, and stress on loan
quality could possibly resurface. Our best pick in our NEUTRAL-weighted bank
sector is UOB, with a target price of S$19.60. Both DBS and OCBC are
NEUTRAL.
Recent banks’ 3Q09 results surprised on the upside. All three banks beat
our expectations. DBS’ earnings surprise was due to provisions of S$265m
being S$140m lower than our forecasts. OCBC, on the other hand, recorded
provisions that is one-third of our forecasts, and also had stronger-thanexpected
trading income. Lastly, UOB reported slightly stronger earnings due to
better associate income, with its provisions in line with our forecasts.
Soft SIBOR to keep DBS’ NIM narrow. DBS’ NIM of 2.03% is sharply lower
than OCBC’s 2.16% and UOB’s 2.39%. The low SIBOR is capping yields from
interbank lending, and DBS is a major player by virtue of its low loan-deposit
ratio. DBS’ advantage derived from its lower dependence on higher-cost fixed
deposits for funding is also eroded with the SIBOR remaining soft. We expect
SIBOR to stay soft over the next few quarters and this could keep DBS’ NIM
narrower than its peers. If signs emerge pointing to SIBOR trending up, then
DBS would be a major beneficiary, but now is not the time!
Loan stabilized in 3Q09 and is seen to expand marginally in 2010. DBS and
UOB reported sequential loan growth, after one and three consecutive quarters
of sequential contraction respectively. OCBC entered its 4th quarter of
sequential loan fall, but its 3Q09 0.4% contraction was milder than earlier
quarters. We expect the mildly-recovering economy to lead to low single-digit
2010 loan growth.
NPL situation has improved. Both DBS and OCBC recorded NPL ratio
sequential fall of 20-30 bps, whilst UOB’s was unchanged. This reflected
stabilizing asset quality. Correspondingly, we lowered our provisions forecasts
and this resulted in net profit forecasts being raised for 4Q09 and 2010.
UOB is best positioned to withstand the effects of a slow economic
recovery. UOB has a loan loss coverage of 106%, higher than its peers. Its
general provision to loan ratio of 1.7% is also more than its peers.
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