2009年11月新加坡银行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月新加坡银行业研究报告
        【作者】：花旗银行
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：88
        【目录或简介】：
Buy Banks: One Last Roll Into 2010 5
DBS top pick, buy OCBC, UOB 5
2010 themes in brief 5
Earnings revisions and revised target price summary 6
Strategy: Banks to Outperform into 1Q 2010 7
STI target 3000: above mid-cycle P/B, but not a bull market 7
19 years of history favours a Nov/Dec year-end rally 10
Bank outperformance into 1Q 2010, likely peak 1.7-2x P/B 11
3Q09 recap — NPLs, provisions fell, upside to consensus 15
Sustaining GDP Growth 22
V-shaped GDP growth to 1Q10, quarterly momentum easing 22
Population, labour force growth raises productivity issues 23
Govt-led investment spend key to banks' loan growth 28
USD Weakness, Liquidity & Interest Rates 34
The multi-year depreciating USD 34
April 2010 likely first tightening of monetary policy 35
Rising interest rate sensitivity study: DBS the winner 37
Potential Capital Changes and Impact 40
Singapore banks amongst the best capitalized in Asia 40
New capital/leverage rules — more scrutiny of profit drivers 41
Singapore banks head-to-head capital comparison 43
Business Strategies: Who Has Created Value? 44
ROA/ROE analysis of banks post 2001 consolidation 44
Regionalization — mixed success 48
Post-2008/09 crisis—Singapore banks emerging as ROE winners 50
DBS Group (DBSM.SI) 52
Buy, Target S$16.70 (1.47x 2010E P/B, 15.5x PER) 52
OCBC (OCBC.SI) 59
Buy, Target S$9.40 (1.73x 2010E P/B, 15x PER) 59
UOB (UOBH.SI) 67
Buy, Target S$22.05 (1.87x 2010E P/B, 15.2x PER) 67
Quant View 73
All three Singapore banks in "Attractive" quadrant 73
Appendix A-1 81

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