2009年11月新加坡银行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月新加坡银行业研究报告
        【作者】：瑞士信贷
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：30
        【目录或简介】：
3Q09 results beat forecasts handsomely. DBS and UOB surprised with a
small margin expansion and fees held up well. A big positive was the
dramatic decline in new NPL formation – NPLs most likely peaked in 2Q09.
■
2010 outlook – strong bottom line, modest top line. The 3Q09 results
also demonstrated the revenue challenges for Singapore banks. For 2010,
loan growth is expected to remain tepid at around 5-6% and banks should
enjoy slightly wider margins (especially DBS) on the back of rising short-term
rates. Fees should improve, but are likely to be offset by the normalisation of
trading income. Overall, revenues should grow by low single digits (OCBC
will be helped by the addition of ING Asia Private Bank, IAPB) but the
bottom line should be far stronger on the back of sharply moderating credit
costs. We estimate OCBC will gain about 8-9% in revenues, 5% in profits
and 80 bp in ROEs in 2010 from its acquisition of IAPB.
■
Upgrade DBS to OUTPERFORM, our new 12-month top pick. Three
reasons: 1) DBS is a play on rising short-term rates (in particular SIBOR),
which are likely to rise in 2H10. Every 100 bp increase in rates translates
into a 12-17 bp net interest margin expansion for DBS in our estimate, 2) the
new CEO joins today. He comes with the right credentials and relevant
experience, having run real businesses in South-East Asia, India and Hong
Kong for Citibank. We are optimistic he can better utilise the Singapore
deposit franchise (a low hanging fruit), fix the slide in Hong Kong
performance, and grow DBS’s footprint in high growth markets; 3) the new
CEO could kitchen-sink some past losses, such as the goodwill on Dao
Heng still being carried on books (this alone would boost ROEs by 2.0%).

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