【出版时间及名称】:2009年11月欧洲金融行业研究报告
【作者】:摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】:PDF
【页数】:51
【目录或简介】:
Absolute return funds are set for renewed growth as
investors focus on risk-adjusted returns. We see
the early stages of a turnaround in hedge fund flows with
redemption pressures easing and inflows growing. Our
research suggests SWFs, foundations and pension
funds have overtaken endowments and HNW HFoF as
the largest source of funds. We think the market is
underestimating the potential upsurge in demand for
absolute return funds from private clients and smaller
institutions via UCITS lll. In the UK, in Q309 alone there
were $2.1bn inflows into absolute return funds, 3x that of
Q1, and we see this as a growing seam for managers to
mine (including Man Group). Our base case assumes
hedge fund AUM return to 2Q07 levels by 4Q10,
although we see risks posed by performance, regulation
and reputational issues.
Liquidity, transparency, didn’t gate, road-tested risk
management, and institutionalized are sine qua non
for success today. Fundamentals will matter more (vs.
arbitrage strategies), and the greatest interest going into
2010 seems to be in macro, equity long-short and CTAs
mandates, although our work shows growing interest in
distressed, EM and event-driven strategies.
Key risks include reputational and regulatory. The
regulatory outcome is still fluid – and bad apples are not
helping. But we believe some policymakers realize the
supportive role providers of risk capital can play: we
estimate that 30-40% of capital raised in 2009 by US
and European banks came from hedge funds. Despite
uncertainties of regulations, we see the minimum scale
required to rise with incremental associated costs.
Our work supports OW Man Group, with strong
Asian HNW sales, where we forecast 11% NNM growth
at Man FY11. We also see upside at SDR and HGG.
A recovery in absolute strategies helps the i-banks.
We estimate 27-32% of equities revenues at CSG,
Deutsche and Barclays came from prime brokerage,
while trading and platforms should help too. OW-rated
CSG, Barclays and Soc Gen are our preferred picks.