2010年印度金融行业展望

相似文件 换一批

是 否 +2 论坛币

k人 参与回答

经管之家送您一份

应届毕业生专属福利!

求职就业群

赵安豆老师微信：zhaoandou666

经管之家联合CDA

送您一个全额奖学金名额~ !

立即领取

感谢您参与论坛问题回答

经管之家送您两个论坛币！

+2 论坛币

【出版时间及名称】：2010年印度金融行业展望
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：47
        【目录或简介】：

India Financial Services
2010: We Remain Very
Positive on SOE Banks
Maintain attractive view on Indian banks: Since
end-August, Indian banks have outperformed the
broader market by 14%. In the near term, there could be
some volatility as some restructured loans turn bad and
RBI raises rates. However, we continue to like banks’
prospects for 2010. Loan growth will likely pick up and
higher rates will actually help NIM expansion. The key
risk to our call remains a decline in global risk appetite
and reversal in foreign capital flows to India.
Revenue momentum to get stronger: Given macro
recovery, continued capital inflow and comfortable
liquidity position, we believe system loan growth will
accelerate to ~15% YoY by Mar-10 and 22% by Mar-11
from a trough of 8-8.5%. This will mean both NII and fee
income growth will be strong for the sector.
Rising interest rates will mean that liability
franchises become valuable again: The central bank
will likely “exit” its current loose monetary policy in 2010
and raise policy rates by 150 bps. In a rising rates
scenario, deposit spreads will open up for banks with
strong low-cost deposit mix. This, coupled with the
tailwind of high-cost deposit re-pricing and better asset
yields, will aid margin progression in F2011 and F2012.
Rise in NPLs from restructured loans slippage is a
manageable headwind: With the economy improving
and global risk appetite remaining stable, we expect
incremental impaired loan creation to start slowing
materially. We agree that NPLs will likely rise from
current levels driven by slippage from restructured loans
that have been created over the past year. However, we
expect SOE banks’ profitability levels will remain robust
despite the increased provisioning requirements.
Valuations still remain attractive for SOE banks:
SOE banks trade at an average 4.1x PPOP and 1.2x
F2011e BV. This is extremely attractive, given that we
expect them to deliver a core ROE of 16% in F11 and
19% in F12. We upgrade Axis to EW and Corp to OW.

扫码加我 拉你入群

请注明：姓名-公司-职位

以便审核进群资格，未注明则拒绝

分享0 收藏0 回帖

关键词：金融行业 Provisioning Requirements restructure Progression 金融 行业 展望 印度

论坛币 10000 个
本文来自: 人大经济论坛 详细出处参考：http://www.pinggu.org/bbs/viewth ... amp;from^^uid=1153827
坛子里第一贵的吧