瑞士信贷：2010年台湾证券市场投资策略报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年台湾证券市场投资策略报告
        【作者】：瑞士信贷
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：116
        【目录或简介】：
Shifting into a moderate year two of recovery. We expect rebounding
GDP growth (4.8%), upward earnings revisions from tech product cycles and
rebounding export demand, and prospects of continued China opening to
drive 2010 higher. We set our year-end 2010 TAIEX target at 9,000, which
represents 17% upside from the recent 7,700 close and is based on the
current 16.5x forward 12-month earnings remaining in place at the end of
2010, and is near the mid-point of its post-bubble 9-24x trading range.
■ Taiwan portfolio tilted to downstream tech, property and insurers. We
remain bullish on tech, but continue to shift from early cycle upstream stocks
toward downstream, which is a more straightforward call on demand,
whereas upstream requires monitoring for a supply or inventory overshoot.
In non-tech, we believe the global recovery, continued China growth and
closer business relations between Taiwan and China will remain key
investment themes, driving our support for the property sector and container
shipping. We also continue to recommend insurers as beneficiaries of a
2010 interest rate increase and exposure to rising property and equity values.
■ Top stocks to own. Our top picks are ASE, Powertech, AUO, Delta,
Synnex, Hon Hai, Acer, Asustek, Quanta, Cathay FHC, Shin Kong FHC,
Taishin, Taiwan Fertilizer, Evergreen and China Steel. We have no Taiwan
exposure directly to memory (would play it through Powertech or Korea/the
US) and small exposure to petrochemicals, handsets, and in-line exposure
to foundries through TSMC, as the sector introduces new competition.

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