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【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月全球投资银行业研究报告
【作者】：汇丰银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：53
【目录或简介】：
Further margin gains feasible in 2010e-
11e, though Q3 09 may have marked a
medium-term quarterly peak
􀀗 As trading dependence falls, pace of
broader revenue recovery remains key
􀀗 Top picks: Credit Suisse, Barclays,
Morgan Stanley. We remain overweight
the CIB sector in H1 2010e
Progressing beyond 60%
Pretax margins were one of the preferred shorthand
measures of CIB (corporate and investment banking)
profitability and efficiency before the credit crisis hit. As
macro conditions slowly re-stabilise, we consider the margin
resurgence of 2009 and the outlook for 2010-11. Sectoral
margins have already recovered to about 60% of pre-crisis
peak levels, and we expect them to rise further, our forecast
fall in trading revenues notwithstanding. The magnitude of
margin recovery is thus likely to contrast with that of ROE
recovery. The US banks are already re-asserting their margin
edge over Europe.
But margin for error limited as
trading declines from peak levels
The ironic similarity of pre-and post-crisis margin runs
based on trading dependence was lost on no one, as the 37%
dependence ratio of the first nine months of 2009 pipped the
2006 pre-crisis peak of 36%. A less accommodating
liquidity and stimulus backdrop this year, and less
favourable FICC trading conditions generally, leave limited
room for error in risk and cost control, regulatory surprises,
and the estimated pace of the broader revenue recovery.
Valuation and top picks
The sector globally now trades at 8.5 2011e earnings, and 1.6
times 2010e tangible equity, while providing a 2.2% 2010e
dividend yield (all cap-weighted). Our top picks are Credit
Suisse (OW(V), TP CHF70), Barclays (OW(V), TP 450p) and
Morgan Stanley (OW(V), TP USD38, raised from USD37).
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