2010年4月全球投资银行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月全球投资银行业研究报告
        【作者】：汇丰银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：36
        【目录或简介】：

More upward than downward revisions
to estimates and target prices; we raise
UBS to Overweight (V) from Neutral (V)
 We reiterate our overweight stance on
the global CIB sector, with 18%
potential share price upside
 Sector trading at 8.9x diluted weighted
2011e earnings and 1.7x 2010e tangible
common equity
Estimate and target price revisions:
five banks up, one down
We raise our diluted EPS estimates and/or target prices for
Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank and UBS, and for BNY Mellon
and State Street, and trim them for Morgan Stanley. We also
raise our rating on UBS to Overweight (V) from Neutral (V),
on signs the company’s recovery is starting to build
momentum; we believe the cross-over quarter, in which the
good news on the stock starts to outweigh the bad, may have
been reached. Twelve major CIB banks in the US and Europe
release Q1 2010 results between 14 April and 6 May.
Reiterating overweight stance,
despite selectively lower volumes
We maintain an overweight stance on the global CIB sector,
despite our expectation of year-on-year volume declines in 2010
in a number of activities following a robust 2009. Our highlight
calls, both Overweight (V), are Credit Suisse (target CHF68)
and Barclays (450p). We maintain Overweight (V) ratings on
BNP Paribas (EUR73), Morgan Stanley (USD37), Societe
Generale (EUR60) and State Street (USD55).
The brunt of the various proposed regulatory reforms is
arguably already discounted in share prices. Nevertheless,
the reform process, especially where it intersects politics,
could still spring some surprises.
Sector valuation
The global CIB sector is trading at 11.8x and 8.9x diluted
2010e and 2011e cap-weighted earnings, respectively, and at
1.7x 2010e tangible equity, while offering a still cautious
2.1% dividend yield. We do not allow for a full dividend
restoration for most names, even in 2012e.

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