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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月全球投资银行业研究报告
【作者】：法国兴业银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：28
【目录或简介】：
Theme Investment banks (IBs) are easy targets in the current political/regulatory
environment. Capital needs are increasing which may depress returns – market risk
requirements under Basel 2 and Basel 3 proposals – SG Universe investment banks sit on a
capital “cushion” in anticipation of reform, with the exception of Deutsche Bank. Three
factors counterbalance fears over the level of sustainable returns in Investment banking: 1)
the changing competitive environment including greater cost flexibility; 2) a continued
structural shortage of capital which we believe will keep margins above their abnormally low
pre-crisis levels; and 3) the progressive disappearance of the legacy asset “drag” on
earnings. Investment banks can move towards previous across-the-cycle ROEs but until the
regulatory framework is settled, we expect returns will be lower. Business is concentrating
among the largest Investment banks, making life harder for mid-sized institutions, which also
lack the geographic balance of the larger players. SG forecasts a 5% fall in revenues for our
Investment banking universe, masking a 17% fall in fixed income, a 13% increase in equities
and an 11% rise in core Investment banking.
􀁑 Sector recommendation We are Neutral on both European banks and Global Investment
banks. Our preference is for well-capitalised banks able to follow a “business as usual”
strategy, gaining market share against weaker players.
􀁑 Main stock picks We are positive on Credit Suisse (Buy TP SF68) - strong capital position
and deft handling of the crisis. We are initiating on Goldman Sachs (GS, Buy TP $190) and
Morgan Stanley (MS, Hold TP $32). These two banks dominate core Investment banking,
which we see as increasingly driving overall IB revenues. Our preference is for GS as we see
banks like MS that remain in rehabilitation as less able to grasp immediate opportunities.
Barclays (Buy TP 458p) is our preferred bank in the total bank sector because the current
valuation of <1x 2010(e) PTBV fails to capture the growth opportunity in investment banking
or the recovery embedded in the non-investment banking businesses. We are neutral on
Deutsche Bank (Hold TP
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