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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月全球投资银行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根大通
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：40
【目录或简介】：
Long-term, we continue to prefer credit banks over IBs due to 2H’10E
delinquency-improvement read across from US banks. However, over
the past six months we have witnessed 7% outperformance by credit
banks (Global IBs: Regulatory Proposal Analysis: Structural IB Profitability
Decline, 9 Sept). However, we acknowledge that IBs are now likely to
outperform over next 3-6 months, due to i) a fixed income revenue decline
of -25% now appears widely discounted to us and is potentially too low, ii)
regulatory concerns appear over-discounted at this point in IB valuations
(European Banks : Regulatory fears now over-discounted, 2nd Feb 2009).
• We expect Fixed Income to surprise in 1Q2010E running c15% above
3Q09 clean levels, with i) spreads stabilizing at a 10% premium to precrisis
levels, ii) origination volumes relatively strong especially in Jan. –
we don’t expect the DCM pipeline to be too negatively affected by
sovereign risk concerns. iii) HFs are back relative to 2009, and lastly iv)
we expect volatility to pick up from low levels, driving revenue margins
and volumes, considering sovereign risk uncertainty.
• Equities have been disappointing so far, running at 3Q09 clean levels
with secondary volumes down -29% vs 1Q2009, and clients increasing
low-touch electronic trading to 76% in US. In addition equity raisings
started quite slowly as sellers such as private equity are highly price
sensitive. We assume that equity derivative are outperforming cash
due to Dividend Swaps, Delta one, and structuring, surprisingly,
performing quite well. We expect Equity revenues up 4% YoY in 2010E.
• Regionally we see Emerging markets and particularly Asia
underperforming, Europe is slow, and US outperforming in 1Q2010.
• Bottom-line results could be surprisingly positive in our view with
potential EPS upgrades driven by: i) Fixed Income outperforming
equity expectations, and ii) lower structural bonus accrual with no overaccrual
in 1Q2010 likely considering political pressures. Our preference
is for private bank geared CSG at 1.9x, UBS 1.5x, followed by MS at
1.1x tangible BV ex own debt 2011E, all OW. Although we expect
outperformance of fixed income geared GS, DB and Barclays in the
short-term, we retain our Neutral long term fundamental ratings.
Table of Contents
Summary IB Revenue Analysis...............................................3
Top down revenue trends in 1Q 2010E........................................................................3
Valuation Summary..................................................................5
Investment Banking Revenue Breakdown by Product 2009-
11E.............................................................................................6
IB Revenue Progression Analysis ..........................................9
Capital and Leverage Ratio Analysis....................................12
Fixed Income Analysis...........................................................14
Rates Business ...........................................................................................................14
Credit Business ..........................................................................................................16
FX.............................................................................................................................21
Commodity ................................................................................................................23
Equity Analysis.......................................................................25
Cash Equities .............................................................................................................25
Equity Derivatives: ....................................................................................................27
Retail Structured Products Volumes ..........................................................................30
I-Banking Revenue Analysis (DCM, ECM, M&A)..................32
Debt Capital Markets (DCM) Revenue Analysis.......................................................34
Equity Capital Markets (ECM) Revenue Analysis ....................................................35
M&A Revenue Analysis ............................................................................................36
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