2010年3月全球投资银行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月全球投资银行业研究报告
        【作者】：汇丰银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：29
        【目录或简介】：
Decline in underwriting spreads over the
past decade briskly reversed in 2009 in
the higher-risk asset categories
 Robust volume growth has more than
offset the impact of continued spread
contraction in most debt markets
 Market share concentration and greater
premium on capital could slow further
spread erosion over coming cycle
The decade past
One surprisingly common notion in the market is that
underwriting spreads have slumped over the past decade.
Although debt underwriting spreads in most core categories
have narrowed substantially since 2000, double-digit 10-year
volume CAGRs have easily offset the impact of this tightening
on the corporate and investment banking sector’s revenues.
Equity and related spreads have proved to be more resilient.
High-yield and leveraged activities have displayed –
unsurprisingly in hindsight – the greatest volatility, in both
spreads and volumes. As origination, and advisory, revenues
begin to play a larger role in the industry P&L – a role arguably
not yet reflected in share prices – we consider recent and
prospective trends.
The decade ahead
Several categories of underwriting displayed brisk spread
widening in 2009, and did so on strong volumes. We certainly
would not extrapolate this widening through the coming cycle.
Nevertheless, the industry consolidation and market-share
concentration that occurred during the credit crisis, combined
with regulatory changes and the greater premium now placed
on capital deployment and balance-sheet usage, should at least
slow the pace of spread or fee erosion over the coming cycle.
Sector valuation, investment outlook
The CIB sector globally currently trades at 8.2x 2011e earnings
and 1.6x 2010e tangible common equity, while offering a 2.4%
2010e dividend yield (all market cap-weighted). We continue to
see fundamental value in the sector, while noting that sovereign
and regulatory jitters could cap potential returns near term.
Credit Suisse (CSGN.VX, CHF47.63, OW (V), target price
CHF67) remains the top pick in our CIB sector coverage based
on its overall business mix at this stage in the cycle.

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