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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月全球投资银行业研究报告
【作者】：汇丰银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：22
【目录或简介】：
Gradual shift of OTC derivatives
business to exchanges and CCPs looks
inevitable; it will cost the banks
Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley
look relatively most exposed, Citi least
Over time, volume gains could help
offset early reductions in profitability
Adapting to the inevitable
As regulatory momentum builds for reform of the
derivatives market, we consider the potential P&L and
capital costs of the likely first stage of that reform, a
mandated shift of OTC business to centralised clearing and
settlement. This could be a precursor to a mandated shift,
where practicable, to exchange-listed trading. Application at
the company level of a modified form of the IMF’s approach
to assessing risk at the macro level, indicates an average
negative impact to CIB pretax earnings of 4-7%, and
potential increased capital needs equivalent to 5-8% of
common equity. By company, Deutsche Bank and Morgan
Stanley appear to have the greatest relative exposure to
stage-one derivatives reform, and Citi the smallest. Banks
with the largest absolute exposures – such as JP Morgan
Chase, Bank of America, and Barclays, aside from Deutsche
Bank – should be better positioned to spread the costs over
larger consolidated earnings and capital bases.
Still some wild cards in the pack
The political horse-trading of derivatives reform in the US
continues and could still spring surprises, positive and
negative. In some countries the process has hardly begun.
The practical work of implementing reforms in any
jurisdiction will take time. Although the near-term
implications are almost certain to be negative for bank
profitability, we could see some long-term benefits in greater
volumes and a fundamentally more stable market.
Sector valuation and ratings
The global CIB sector is trading at 8.5 times diluted 2011e
earnings and at 1.6 times 2010e tangible common equity,
while offering a still cautious 2.2% dividend yield
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