2010年2月墨西哥电信行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月墨西哥电信行业研究报告
        【作者】：汇丰银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：30
        【目录或简介】：

America Movil’s fixed-mobile strategy to
yield benefits only in the very long term
 In meantime, America Movil minorities
face owning less of a lower-growth firm
 We downgrade AMX to N(V) from OW(V);
maintain TMX at UW and TII at UW(V)
Pre-emptive or premature? America Movil’s bid to buy-in
the Telmex (TMX) and Telmex Internacional (TII) fixed-line
operations in Latin America indicates its strong belief in the
strategic benefits of converged fixed-mobile operations. At a
conceptual level, we share this view. We believe that in time,
integrated players will enjoy a major competitive advantage
over wireless or wireline pure-play rivals, particularly as
mobile capacity constraints become more apparent as the
penetration of bandwidth-hungry smartphones rises. The
difficulty is one of timing, though. We believe the strategic
advantage of owning both fixed and mobile assets will not
crystallize in Latin American telecoms markets for several
years – well beyond our one-year investment time horizon.
Limited synergies. We take a sceptical view of near-term
opex and capex synergy potential – believing the asset
combinations to be too geographically and functionally
disparate to yield major savings. We also find few examples
worldwide of diversified operators that have successfully
monetized fixed-mobile convergence – either in terms of
exploiting cross-platform functionality to develop
compelling new services, or even more simply in terms of
successfully selling fixed-mobile bundles.
A lesser share of lower growth. With few synergies, the
deal looks dilutive to us. With minimum 22% equity
dilution, America Movil minorities would own less of a
lower-growth entity (across revenue, EBITDA and cash
flow) as TMX and TII are rolled-up. We assume 80%
probability the deal completes, and as such are now valuing
America Movil on a proforma basis. The “NewCo” looks
expensive versus both regional and global diversified peers
though. Adjusting for lower pro-forma growth, we reduce
our target price to USD52 (from USD58) and downgrade our
rating to Neutral (V) from Overweight (V).

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