2010年2月中国地产行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月中国地产行业研究报告
        【作者】：OPPENHEIMER证券
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：49
        【目录或简介】：
Table of Contents
CHINA REAL ESTATE MARKET OVERVIEW .................................................................. 3
Market Size and Growth .................................................................................................. 3
Drivers of Growth ............................................................................................................ 5
Macro Economic Improvements ............................................................................ 5
More Affluent Urban Population with High Savings Rate ...................................... 5
Increasing Urbanization ........................................................................................ 6
Importance of China’s Real Estate Market ...................................................................... 7
A Significant Driver of GDP Growth................................................................................. 7
A Strong Contributor to Local Government Income ......................................................... 8
Understanding China’s Real Estate Market: Industry Drivers ..................................... 10
Market Factors: Transaction Volume Leads Price; Price Supports Volume .................. 10
Regulatory Forces: Money Supply, Land Supply, Fees & Taxes, Mortgage Rate,
Minimal Down Payment… ............................................................................................. 11
Financial Condition of Developers ................................................................................. 12
Inflation Expectations .................................................................................................... 13
China’s Real Estate Market: Recent Performance........................................................ 14
A Brief Recent History ................................................................................................... 14
Additional Measures Are Likely, but Will Be Differentiated ............................................ 16
Residential Property Industry Outlook .......................................................................... 17
We Don’t Think It’s a Nationwide Bubble .................................................................. 17
Near-term Outlook ....................................................................................................... 19
2010 Outlook ................................................................................................................ 21
Housing Supply Likely to Increase, But Structurally Different ........................................ 22
Transaction Volume Will Decline ................................................................................... 23
Anticipate Modest Changes in Housing Prices .............................................................. 24
Lower Tier Cities Represent New Growth Opportunities ............................................... 25
Secondary Market More Impacted Than Primary Market .............................................. 25
Other Segments Performance and Outlook .................................................................. 26
Retailing ........................................................................................................................ 26
Industrial ........................................................................................................................ 26
Office ............................................................................................................................. 27
Risks/Concerns ............................................................................................................... 28
E-House Holdings Company Outlook (EJ, Outperform) .............................................. 29
Our Positive Thesis on EJ ............................................................................................. 29
4Q09 and 2010 Preview ................................................................................................ 31
Valuation ....................................................................................................................... 31
Major Industry Players .................................................................................................... 32
Comp Table ...................................................................................................................... 40
Real Estate Companies Stock Performance ................................................................. 41
CHINA

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