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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月欧洲金属与矿产行业研究报告
【作者】：汇丰银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：26
【目录或简介】：
Chinese GDP growth >8% and other world
GDP growth >3% should return metal
demand to pre-crisis levels by 2011
Market is yet to think through the impact of
the recovery on cash generation and M&A
We continue to favour bulk producers,
RIO.L, AAL.L and VED.L, all rated OW(V)
Exploring Risk
This report is a summary of a commodity market overview
presentation given by Andrew Keen to the Prospectors and
Developers Association of Canada (PDAC) annual
conference in Toronto in early March, the largest industry
gathering in the metals industry.
The past 12 months has seen a remarkable recovery in
metals prices, many of which have doubled. This has shifted
the investment risk towards the sustainability of global
economic recovery. Our analysis presented in this paper
using demand grids concludes that we are around half-way
through the demand recovery and pre-crisis demand should
be regained in 2011. This analysis also quantifies the risk of
different rates of economic growth, concluding that Chinese
GDP growth of above 8% should be sufficient to ensure the
tightening in 2011 that we believe many metals markets now
discount. We also conclude that bulk commodities have
better risk/reward at this point in the cycle and discuss many
of the pitfalls of commodity price forecasting, highlighting
some of the irritating inconsistencies at present (notably the
consensus view that project quality is deteriorating, yet most
corporations are claiming low-cost growth options).
Also, we believe that the implications of the commodity
recovery are yet to be appreciated, notably the impact on cash
generation in the industry, and we are expecting a significant
recovery in capital spending and M&A in the sector.
We continue to recommend exposure to global diversified
producers, with Overweight (V) ratings on Rio Tinto, Anglo
American and Vedanta. We remain Neutral (V) on BHP
Billiton and Underweight (V) on Xstrata and Antofagasta.
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