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雷达卡
58 pages, 发表于12月1日。
Global: Bridging the global gap
The key driver of many of the economic, policy and market stories in 2011 is the
large gap in economic performance between the “advanced” and “emerging”
economies. This chronically unbalanced global economy implies a risky outlook.
United States: Stormy weather
The slow healing process will continue to dominate the US economic outlook. In
2011, we expect GDP growth of 2.0 to 2.5% with core measures of inflation to
continue weakening. The risks to this outlook are mainly to the downside.
Canada: The rise of the machines
The Canadian economy will probably expand by 3.0% in 2011. Canada will be an
outperformer amongst developed market economies, outpacing all G7 countries
next year while keeping pace with other commodity / low debt bloc countries.
Euro area: At a crossroads
While the Eurozone, as a whole, is in recovery mode, we think it is very likely that
Portugal and somewhat likely that Spain will fall into the sovereign safety net.
United Kingdom: Slower growth, but still high inflation
Fiscal tightening will weigh on growth in 2011; we expect 2.0% real GDP growth.
Despite this weak growth profile, inflation will remain at roughly 3%, as fading
import price effects are offset by the rise in the VAT.
Japan: Testing time for policies
Japan’s economic growth will slow to +1.5% in 2011 from +3.3% in 2010.
However, we believe a severe economic slowdown will be averted and the
economy will get back on track for recovery from mid-2011 onward.
Australia: A nice place to be
Our broad brush view is that Australia is better placed than most to absorb
setbacks that may impact the global cycle in 2011. We would downplay the notion
that Australia is particularly vulnerable because of some sectoral imbalances.
EM Asia: Year of the Rabbit: fast growth, rising inflation
Emerging Asia will continue to drive growth in the global economy. Capital
controls and “macro-prudential measures” will be a critical issue for 2011, but
these measures will likely have little impact in the long run.
EM EMEA: More growth, same risks
After trailing the rest of EM in 2010, we see EMEA growth picking up in 2011 even
as other regions slow. However, it remains vulnerable to contagion from the Euro
area.
Latin America: Conflicting forces, pre-emptive policies
LatAm will face conflicting forces such as high commodity prices but residual FX
appreciation in the region and high food inflation but low imported inflation. Those
forces will lead LatAm central banks to be more conservative about tightening.
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