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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月全球货币研究报告
【作者】：汇丰银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：50
【目录或简介】：
Yen– The tide is turning (pg 3)
The close inverse relationship that used to exist between the yen and the performance of risk assets has to
a large extent broken down over the past few months as the yen has drifted higher despite continued
rallies in risk assets. The two main forces that drove the yen higher seem to have been the incentive that
now exists for Japanese investors to increase their hedges on holdings of overseas bonds, and the changed
tax treatment of dividends from overseas subsidiaries of Japanese companies. Both of these effects seem
likely to fade, especially given the end of fiscal year has passed. This should see the yen give back some
further ground in April.
CHF– The overshoot has begun (pg 10)
The rationale for SNB intervention has been drying up. Originally stability was prized above all else.
With many having over-borrowed in the CHF in order to fund positions outside Switzerland, the fear was
that a sudden appreciation of the CHF would be destabilising. It was thought that as soon as the crisis had
passed the SNB could step away from its intervention policy. This was not to be. The pressure on the
CHF to appreciate has remained, but the rationale for “holding that line in the sand” is disappearing
quickly. It seems that the SNB is now recognising this and are in the process of abandoning this
outmoded intervention policy. This of course is no easy feat.
CNY– the window for appreciation (pg 16)
The RMB has become a more sensitive issue in China, as rhetoric on the currency has ratcheted up across
the Pacific. Given this, the political calendar now needs to be considered along with the economic reality,
in assessing the outlook for FX policy. From both these perspectives the window for RMB appreciation in
2010 would appear to be narrowing. If the RMB does not show noticeable appreciation in Q2, as per our
expectation, then the political and economic cycles could make it difficult for it to occur at all in 2010.
INR – Carry me not (pg 19)
The RBI recently became the second central bank in the region to surprise the market with a rate hike, the
first being Malaysia earlier in March. This rate hike is a positive step. Beyond that, however, we are still
unconvinced by the value in the rupee at current levels – we continue to see a number of risks. We prefer
currency exposure in the CNY NDFs very short term, but also KRW, MYR, IDR and TWD from a
cyclical perspective.
NZD – Sweet and sour (pg 22)
We have long preferred the AUD to the NZD and still do. Although we believe the NZD may not have
the same long-term positive story as the AUD, it does have some positive features compared to other
currencies. For instance the NZD is more Asian oriented than some other commodity currencies when it
comes to exports. Though the NZD should not be considered in the same light as the AUD we believe it
deserves more credit than has recently been the case, especially versus some other non-commodity bloc
currencies or the CAD.
Dollar Bloc (pg 27)
Canada –Can’t fight the tape - Canada’s economy is recovering faster than the market and the BoC
expected, such that the latest economic data suggests the currency will perform better than we previously
expected. We are adjusting our forecasts and now expect the CAD to remain stronger for longer, and for
USD-CAD to trade near and even modestly below parity in the coming months.
Australia – Onward and upwards - On 6 April the RBA increased their cash target once again; the
policy rate is now 4.25% with more rate hikes on the horizon as the RBA has highlighted that rates should
be nearer to the historical average. It seems that RBA’s concerns over AUD strength have been sidelined
with export strength holding up, and RBA’s emphasis is instead focused on rising house prices. We
remain bullish on the AUD expecting further rate rises to bring the policy into ‘normal’ territory.
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