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【出版时间及名称】：2009年12月全球货币研究报告
【作者】：汇丰银行
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：54
【目录或简介】：
What could stop the risk rally? (pg 3)
The rally in risk assets since March of this year has taken some assets back above levels last seen in 2007,
before the crisis. Fears that early policy tightening might stall the recovery have largely disappeared, and
the money markets look likely to be calm over the year end. A ‘credit event’ is always a risk, but the
reaction to events in Dubai suggests that the currency market can adjust to such shocks quickly. However,
it would not take much more in the way of data disappointments for the market to start to fear a doubledip
recession. While the initial reaction to a sell-off in risk assets would be a higher dollar, this, in our
view, would only prove to be short-lived. The longer term and bigger move would be an acceleration of
the dollar’s recent decline.
Cable – an early Christmas homecoming (pg 13)
As in previous years, we recommend that companies who need to buy GBP for year-end should consider
acting sooner rather than later. There may continue to be many companies which choose or are forced to
wait until late December to act, suggesting that this anomaly will persist; however, there are strong signs
that the market is beginning to trade away this seasonality.
RMB still in a holding pattern (pg 21)
While the economic case for RMB appreciation may seem to be self-evident, we find little onshore
support for currency appreciation to resume anytime soon. Recent global developments are only likely to
reinforce onshore concerns about the resilience of the global recovery. Short USD-CNY is one of the
more populated FX trades at present in our view. With spot unlikely to validate that position in the near
term, we favour being long the 2yr NDF.
Ingot we trust (pg 24)
We believe the impact of a weak USD, accommodative US monetary polices, and strong commodity
prices will be sufficient to keep gold trading at historically high levels. Silver prices are high due to
strong gold prices and the demand for hard assets. Industrial demand should improve and mine supply
rise in 2010, but prices will be sensitive to any shift in investor sentiment. PGMs are positioned to see
support from a recovering global auto market in 2010; for platinum, Chinese jewellery and investor
demand trends continue to support pricing, while lower Russian stock sales are expected be a key driver
for palladium.
Dollar Bloc (pg 28)
Canada – The most recent economic data reinforce the view that Canada’s economy is improving, although
some of the reports have been better than others. Overall, however, the market still ranks Canada as one of the
more appealing G10 countries, an assessment that has contributed to steady demand for, and relatively firm
levels of, the CAD. Barring a bigger change in either the sustainability of the risk trade more broadly, or in
respective backdrops of the US or Canada, we think the CAD will remain relatively resilient.
Australia – While strong domestic data has pushed the AUD upwards over the past month, the negative
external news that has subsequently acted to push the currency back down, so that it is little change overall.
Going into 2010 we still like the AUD and see it reaching parity versus the USD. While a lot of the goods news
may be priced in for the AUD, there is probably not yet enough bad news priced in for the USD.
New Zealand - Following the latest speech by Bollard, the NZD rallied. Clearly a rate rise in 2010 will be
positive for the NZD, and markets are already starting to price it in. For this reason we still like the NZD
against the US dollar and the yen. However, when compared to its neighbour, we still prefer the AUD, as
Australia has already started to tighten monetary policy and looks likely to continue this trend into 2010.
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