2010年2月全球货币研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月全球货币研究报告
        【作者】：汇丰银行
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：50
        【目录或简介】：

The USD carry unwind... short, sharp and vicious (pg 3)
EUR-USD has started the year in exactly the same manner as last year. The problem now is that USD
strength is not predicated on a pure flight to safety. It is more a reversal of last year’s liquidity-driven
dollar funded trades. At the same time the issue of sovereign risk has rotated to the Eurozone and is
showing few signs of abating. We are likely to see a return to USD weakness later in the year. But for
now the woes in Greece are hurting the EUR and this is likely to persist in the short term.
Quantifying the Greek tragedy (pg 8)
There are two important aspects to the Greek situation that concern the foreign exchange market. One
concerns the future of the EUR and the other aspect is of course the present. We estimate that the Greek
situation has taken ten big figures off EUR-USD. That is, EUR-USD has dropped around seven percent
on Greek worries. We do not believe Greece will default but the impact on the EUR will persist for a
while yet.
Currencies are playing politics (pg 12)
With zero interest rates, bond markets dominated by QE, and massive fiscal deficits, government power
has grown and the political business cycle is making a comeback. The UK general election is most likely
to be held on May 6th this year. Overall, an outcome other than a Conservative victory is probably
perceived as a negative for Sterling. However, some of this negativity must already be priced in to
Sterling. This suggests that there will be some upside for Sterling after the election.
CNY gradualism – slow and steady (pg 23)
Questions over the timing, and manner, of China’s exit from its de-facto dollar peg have gathered more
urgency. Following the more hawkish stance from the Chinese authorities, it is only sensible that we also
bring forward the timing of appreciation into 2Q. Our key message, however, is that appreciation will
likely begin more slowly than recent market expectations.
Dollar Bloc (pg 27)
Canada – CAD on the road to nowhere – After kicking off the New Year on a strong note, the CAD
subsequently pulled back. We think the pattern is somewhat indicative of what the CAD is likely to do in
the future, with the CAD holding up reasonably well, but unlikely to make sustained gains beyond last
year’s highs.
Australia – This is not the end of the tightening trend – The RBA decided to shock the market by
keeping the cash rate unchanged at 3.75% on the 2nd February. We believe that tightening should
continue to stem price appreciation, and maintain our view that the AUD will be one of the best
performing currencies in 2010.
New Zealand – It’s all relative – While both the Antipodean currencies have shown a weak performance
lately, we must look at them on a relative basis. If we look at AUD-NZD following the news of China’s
tightening, it can be seen that although both currencies were affected, the AUD outperformed the NZD.

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关键词：研究报告 Appreciation bond markets Conservative Expectations 货币 研究报告 全球

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