法国农业信贷银行：希腊银行业研究报告2009年4月

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CONTENTS
Investment recommendation 3
I— Some positive signs, but stay alert 5
􀁑 Underperforming European peers during this crisis 5
􀁑 What’s next? 5
􀁑 Target prices based on the Gordon Growth Formula 7
II— Weak Q4, but the worst may not be over 8
􀁑 Difficult operating environment evident in Q4 8
􀁑 Drop in equity was the biggest negative surprise 8
􀁑 Credit cycle is starting to bite 10
􀁑 Arrears in the SE European operations – how high? 11
􀁑 Provisioning trends set to double for Greek banks 11
􀁑 Coverage relatively weak despite the rise in Q4 12
􀁑 Base case cost of risk manageable for Greek banks 13
􀁑 Maintaining high pre-provision profit is vital 13
􀁑 The bad news: things will probably get worse… 13
􀁑 …before they get any better 14
􀁑 Liquidity concerns are easing as loan growth softens 14
III— Greek banks can weather the crisis 16
􀁑 Well placed even under stress-test conditions 16
􀁑 Is an NPL scenario of 35% in the CEE realistic? 17
􀁑 Is nationalisation or conversion of preference shares likely? 17
IV— Macro update 19
􀁑 Recession is inevitable 19
􀁑 Trends in Greece deteriorating fast 19
􀁑 Unemployment on the rise 20
􀁑 Structural problems of the Greek economy the main concern 20
V— Wrap-up of Q4 and estimate revisions 21
VI— Accounts 27

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关键词：行业研究报告 行业研究 研究报告 银行业 unemployment 研究报告 信贷 银行业 法国 希腊