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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月俄罗斯石油天然气行业研究报告
【作者】：OTKRITIE Investment Bank
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：45
【目录或简介】：
Russian Oil and Gas:
Shifting the focus to gas stocks
In this report we revisit our outlook on the Russian oil and gas sector,
reinitiating coverage of Gazprom, Gazprom neft, LUKOIL, NOVATEK, Rosneft and
Surgutneftegaz. We believe that Gazprom and NOVATEK have a better potential
for appreciation in the short-term vis-a-vis integrated oils, as the former should
strongly benefit from expansion in their sales volumes and growth in domestic
gas prices over the next few years. In the oil space, we maintain our positive
view on Rosneft and TNK-BP, as we believe these companies will continue to
deliver superior growth, coupled with capital efficiency.
Better outlook for Russian gas stocks, as strong earnings growth lies ahead.
From our standpoint, the market has been too pessimistic about Russian gas
over the past few months due to the developing US shale gas theme, and in
reaction to potential implications for the European gas market from a significant
LNG capacity build-up in the Middle East. We believe investors are paying
insufficient attention to superior earnings and cash-flow growth that Gazprom
and NOVATEK should deliver in the next few years (even under relatively
conservative oil price assumptions). Market emphasis should gradually shift
towards Russian gas stocks in upcoming months, as they will demonstrate
impressive earnings and cash-flow growth. We therefore expect Gazprom and
NOVATEK to outperform the integrated Russian oils, in relative terms.
Gazprom’s EBITDA should double in the next five years, with revenues rising
70%. We estimate that Gazprom revenues will increase by more than 70%
between 2009 and 2014 (from $105.8bn to $179.5bn, five-year CAGR of 11%),
with EBITDA more than doubling (rising from $36.5bn to $75.4bn, five-year
CAGR of 16%). Having said that, we would like to stress that based on our $70/
bbl Brent price assumption, Gazprom currently trades at only 4.1x on its 2010E
earnings and 3.4x on EV/EBITDA. Given the projected earnings and cash-flow
growth, we forecast that Gazprom will trade 2014E P/E and EV/EBITDA at 2-3x,
which we find very compelling in the context of the GEM universe. Our DCF-based
target price implies a potential upside of 54% for the stock on a 12-month view.
Explosive growth for NOVATEK. Although NOVATEK currently trades at higher
multiples than the average for Russian and GEM oils (2010E P/E of 13.3x and
EV/EBITDA of 9.7x), the company should see much faster volume and cash-
flow growth in the next few years. In our view it offers an attractive appreciation
potential from current levels (53% to our DCF-based target price of $10.00/
share), which is comparable to Gazprom. We estimate NOVATEK’s revenues to
almost triple between 2009 and 2014 (from $2.8bn to $8.0bn, CAGR of 23%)
and its EBITDA to expand by 3.6x (from $1.23bn to $4.43bn, CAGR of 29%).
Stronger free cash-flow generation is likely to translate into a higher dividend
payout in the next few years, as the company should see a major proportion of
its share in the South Tambey project carried by foreign partners.
We prefer Rosneft and TNK-BP Holding in the oil space. We believe that
Rosneft and TNK-BP Holding retain chances for better relative performance,
as compared to other integrated oils. These companies offer higher upside to
our 12-month targets based on our DCF analysis, (38% and 33% respectively).
While the Russian government has yet to decide on the fate of the export duty
relief for Eastern Siberian oil and gas fields, and the tax outlook for Rosneft
and TNK-BP remains somewhat uncertain, these companies should continue to
deliver superior volume growth coupled with capital efficiency. We realize that
LUKOIL looks cheaper than Rosneft based on its valuation multiples (2010E P/E
of 5.8x versus 7.3x for Rosneft), but we feel that it is likely to disappoint on the
volume side in the short-term (we are projecting negative growth for liquids),
and the company has yet to demonstrate its ability to control expenditures and
to improve free cash-flow generation.
Investment summary .................................................................3
Better outlook for gas stocks ..........................................................................3
Market has been too pessimistic about Russian gas, stocks look mispriced ....4
Implications related to US shale gas production seem overstated ...................5
Potential domestic gas price liberalization provides extra upside ....................5
However, performance should be be taken for granted ....................................6
Not too optimistic a view on oil prices .............................................................6
Among integrated oils, Rosneft and TNK-BP are BUY-rated ..............................7
LUKOIL is a HOLD ............................................................................................8
Gazprom neft is also a HOLD, on valuation grounds ........................................8
Surgut is least favored, although preferred dividend may spark interest ..........8
Valuation ...................................................................................9
Oil price outlook ......................................................................10
Taxes .......................................................................................14
Mineral extraction tax relief for frontier regions .............................................14
Change in the MET formula for crude .............................................................14
Introduction of reduced MET rates for highly-depleted fields .........................15
Change in the export duty calculation procedure ..........................................16
Export duty relief for selected oil and gas fields in Eastern Siberia ................16
Outlook ........................................................................................................18
Outlook on volume growth .......................................................19
Growth restored in 2009 ...............................................................................19
Growth driven by a handful of greenfield projects .........................................20
Brownfield production decline likely to accelerate next year ..........................21
We are projecting 1% volume growth for oil in 2010 .....................................22
Post-2010 outlook less certain, but reduction in output seems very likely .....24
Russian NGL potential should not be overstated ...........................................25
Gazprom ..................................................................................26
Gazprom neft ...........................................................................29
LUKOIL ....................................................................................32
NOVATEK .................................................................................35
Rosneft ....................................................................................38
Surgutneftegaz ........................................................................41
Appendix .................................................................................44
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