2010年3月美国石油开采行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月美国石油开采行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：32
        【目录或简介】：
Exploration & Production
Equities Lower Again –
Sentiment Deteriorates
E&P Equities trading down with the natural gas strip.
The second consecutive down week for the group, with
the EPX trading off ~3.5%, and the 12-month natural
gas strip down 7%. While our view that the decline of the
natural gas curve would abate was clearly early, the
equities continue to look to discount lower commodity
prices. Front month natural gas closed the week at
$3.87/mcf while the 48-month strip stands at its lowest
levels since Apr. 2004. Look for sentiment towards the
commodity to continue to worsen in the near-term. The
Baker Hughes gas-directed rig count rose by 2 rigs this
week to 941 and the first week of the gas injection
season has closed out hope for winter weather to
improve balances further. LNG imports continue to rise
(estimated increase of ~600 MMcf/d yoy through March)
with expectations for continued increased imports during
the shoulder period.
Valuation Support? Not yet. While the equities have
traded down 5% YTD, valuations are still ahead of the
current forward curve, in our view. Our large-cap
coverage universe trades at 6.2x 2010 EV/EBITDA at
our price deck of ($5.45/mcf and $85/bbl), compared to
a “mid-cycle” average of 5.5x. Perhaps more importantly,
the stocks stand 20% above the Sept/09 lows.
Stay defensive. We continue to prefer oil-weighted
large-cap names (NBL and SU), as well as lower-cost /
strong balance sheet natural gas producers (UPL and
SWN) positioned to deliver despite lower commodity
prices. We continue to believe that signs of upstream
discipline will be needed before a sustainable rally in the
natural gas equities is possible. While rig counts will
need to fall for this to materialize, we do expect
sentiment towards the group may shift particularly
should the pace of commodity weakness abate. See our
positive Research Tactical Idea on SandRidge Energy
for one way to play this potential improvement in
sentiment.

Contents of The Weekly Explorer Page
Investment Perspective 2
Morgan Stanley Estimates vs. Consensus 3
Consensus EPS Revisions & Short Interest 5
Comparative Performance Tables 6
Investment Thesis 9
Commodity Macro 10
Commitments of Traders Report 11
Natural Gas Markets 12
Differentials 13
Supply & Demand 14
Fundamental Drivers 15
Switching Economics 16
US Power Market Metrics 17
Crude Oil Markets 18
Crude Fundamentals 19
US Gasoline Fundamentals 20
US Distillate Fundamentals 21
Chemical Markets 22
Hedges 23
GDP Forecast, Leading Indicators & Actuals 26
Publications & Content Index 27
Valuation Methodologies & Risks 28
Disclosure 29

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关键词：行业研究报告 研究报告 石油开采 美国石油 行业研究 美国 研究报告 行业 石油开采

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