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Key Sector Views and Global Perspective
CEEMEA Telecoms & Media
Jean-Charles Lemardeley, CFAAC *
(44-20) 7325-5763
jean-charles.lemardeley@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd.
Elena Bazhenova
(7-495) 937-7314
elena.bazhenova@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Bank International LLC
Malin Hedman
(44-20) 7325-9353
malin.b.hedman@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd.
Johan Snyman
(27-11) 507-0377
johan.x.snyman@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Equities Ltd.
* Registered/qualified as a research analyst under NYSE/NASD rules
See page 1 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision. Customers of J.P. Morgan in the United States can receive independent, third-party research on the company or companies
covered in this report, at no cost to them, where such research is available. Customers can access this independent research at
www.morganmarkets.com or can call 1-800-477-0406 toll free to request a copy of this research.
• Key Telecom Headlines: Russia may limit foreigners’ ownership rights in
telecom companies, a negative for the sector in our view. Norwegian
Telenor (29.9% in VimpelCom) and Swedish TeliaSonera (43.8% in
MegaFon) are the two largest foreign shareholders in Russian telecoms
which may be affected by the proposed changes. J.P. Morgan’s Asian
Telecom team has downgraded Bharti to Neutral from OW, they still see it
as the sector leader and best positioned but the upside appears limited. The
team has also downgraded Idea Cellular Limited to Underweight from
Neutral as new circle launches are likely to keep margins depressed. In
India GSM operators reported combined subscriber net adds of 8.5MM in
Dec-08 vs. 7.9MM in November; we have assumed that RCOM’s GSM net
adds in December were the same as in November. Another good month for
GSM reflects continued traction in subscriber additions. J.P. Morgan’s Latin
America Telecom team believes that the operating environment for Telemar
will not improve following the acquisition of BRP, given limited growth
opportunities and synergies. Also, TNE’s high leverage increases its risks at
a time of a slowing economy, and the valuation is unattractive.
• Telecom Performance and Valuation Backdrop. Telecom performance
has been dominated by macro and credit concerns of late, with Russian
stocks faring particularly poorly and only very few high-yielding integrated
incumbents (TPSA, TEF O2 Czech) outperforming the sector very
significantly. In developed markets, telecom has been outperforming the
broader market in both the US and Europe.
• Media Performance and Valuation Backdrop. Media has derated sharply
in emerging markets on expectations of a sharp growth slowdown and
currency concerns, but the stocks rebounded in the last week. The same can
be said of US media, while outperformance in Europe is only due to the fact
that the mix of the industry has shifted to more defensive segments.
• Top Picks: Our top picks across CEEMEA Telecoms and Media are VIP,
Turk Telekom, Mobinil, MTN and Comstar.
Table of Contents
Key Sector Views and Top Picks ............................................3
Key Investment Themes ..........................................................8
Price Targets...........................................................................11
Stock Investment Theses ......................................................12
Key Telecom News and Research of the Week ...................17
Key Media News and Research of the Week........................25
Media: Audience Developments............................................27
Valuation: Multiples................................................................28
Valuation: DCF Valuation.......................................................30
Stock Performance and Sector Investment Climate............31
Key Company Projections .....................................................38
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