瑞士信贷：美国零售行业研究报告2009年5月

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Retail industry cash capital spending, as measured by our survey of 80
companies (expanded this year with the addition of 17 companies),
decreased 14.4% to $47.9 billion in 2008, marking the first decline since
2002. The softlines retailers posted the largest decline, down 24.2% on a
year-over-year basis, followed by mall anchors’ 22.4% decline, hardlines’
20.4% decline, and mass merchants’ 18.3% decline. Only food & drug
retailers’ capital spending increased 8.7%, driven by growth in the drug store
segment.
■
Spending on merger and acquisitions for the industry continued to slide from
peak registered in 2005, declining 5.7% year over year in 2008. Future
minimum lease liabilities declined for the first time since we started tracking
this metric in 2000, down 1.9% year over year.
■
2009 cash capital spending is projected to decline 15.7% based on guidance
included in 2008 10K’s. The decline would be materially greater if it were not
for Wal-Mart’s projection for cash capital spending to increase by an
estimated 13% or $1.5 billion. The projected decline for the survey would
mark the first time capital spending has fallen in 2 consecutive years since
the inception of our survey in 1991.
■
Retailers spending $1 billion or more in capex had increased from 9
companies in 2003 accounting for 47% of capex to 13 retailers accounting
for 72% in spending in 2008. However, due to the sharp reductions in
spending projected, the number of retailers expected to spend $1 billion or
more in capex is project to be 9 in 2009 accounting for 70% of total spending.
■
Both retail industry return on equity and return on assets declined
substantially in 2008. ROE declined from 16.6% in 2007 to 14.9% in 2008
nearing 2001’s low of 13.9%. ROA was down from 7.7% to 6.9% nearing
2001’s low of 6.5%.
Table of contents
Executive Summary 3
Total Capital Spending 4
The Billion-Dollar Club 5
Summary by Retail Segment 6
2009 Expected Capital Spending 6
Financial Returns 7
ROIC 8
Asset Management 9
Inventory 9
Payables 11
Depreciation 12
Cash Capital Spending to Total Revenue 13
Gross Selling Space 14
Retail Store Closings 15
Retail Capacity 17
E-Commerce: Changing Landscape 18
Retail Segment Overviews 19
Mall Anchors 19
Cash Capital Spending 19
Future Minimum Lease Liabilities 19
Square Footage Growth 20
M&A Activity 20
Mall Anchor Capital Spending vs. Share Price Performance 21
Sales Growth Continues to Lag Store Growth 21
Mall Anchor Financial Returns and Asset Management 22
Mass Merchants 23
Cash Capital Spending 23
Future Minimum Lease Liabilities 24
Square Footage Growth 24
M&A Activity 25
Mass Merchants Financial Returns and Asset Management 25
Specialty Retail — Hardlines 26
Specialty Retail — Softlines 30
Specialty Softlines Financial Returns and Asset Management 33
Food and Drug Retail 34
2008 – M&A Stalls, Credit Markets Freeze 34
2009 Capex to Decline for the First Time since 2003 35
Supermarkets 35
Drugstores 35
Food and Drug Retailers Returns and Asset Management 36
Vendor Financing 37
Methodology 38
Cash Capital Spending 38
Returns 38
Inventory Calculations 38
Appendix 39

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