瑞士信贷：美国软件行业研究报告2009年4月

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Table of Contents
The Download… 3
Mainframe Sector Thesis 4
Cyclical Thesis 4
Mainframe Software Stocks Outperform Software during the First Year of IBM
Mainframe Cycles 4
Low Revenue Beta Mainframe Software Models 7
Secular Thesis 10
Price Declining Slower than MIPS Growth – Driving Revenue Growth 10
Mainframe Software Stock Theses 12
BMC Investment Thesis 12
Positives 13
Best-in-class Distributed Systems Management Product Portfolio 13
Negatives 15
Operating Margin Expansion Drives Share Price & We Expect Rate of Expansion to
Slow 15
Valuation Gap Has Closed 18
What about Stock Rotation into Cyclicals? 22
Boost from IBM z10 Mainframe Hardware Cycle to Fade 23
CA Investment Thesis 25
Positives 25
Long-term Margin Expansion 25
More Efficient Use of Capital 26
Negatives 26
Boost from IBM z10 Mainframe Cycle to Fade 26
Exposed to Swings in Foreign Currency 28
Decelerating Business Metrics 30
Valuation Not “Cheap” Enough Given Expectations for Slowing Relative Growth 32
Financial Models 35
Sources & References 43

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关键词：行业研究报告 研究报告 瑞士信贷 软件行业 行业研究 美国 软件 研究报告 信贷 瑞士