德意志银行：欧洲保险行业研究报告2009年5月

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Table of Contents
Executive summary ........................................................................... 3
Outlook: Buy FonSAI and Mapfre, Cautious on Generali ..........................................................3
Valuation ..................................................................................................................................3
Risks ........................................................................................................................................4
Alleanza – Hold, TP Euro 5.1 - A proxy of the Generali shares ..................................................6
A solid company ...............................................................................................................7
Integrated in Generali by September ................................................................................7
Valuation ...........................................................................................................................7
Fondiaria-SAI – Buy, TP Euro 14.0 - Playing the recovery in non-life profits............................10
Playing the non-life recovery but it is too early to see the signs .....................................11
The business plan might be a catalyst ............................................................................12
OK solvency; debt leverage and sensitivity to real estate are high .................................12
Life might well be a surprise...........................................................................................13
Valuation .........................................................................................................................13
Generali – Hold, TP Euro 15.8 - Expensive, with no catalyst ...................................................16
Capital position is not a concern .....................................................................................17
A visible deterioration in the non-life business................................................................17
The life business mix is solid...........................................................................................18
Cost saving strategy is continuing, Alleanza is an opportunity........................................18
Is it time for external expansion? ....................................................................................19
Valuation .........................................................................................................................19
Mediolanum – Hold, TP Euro 3.4 - Playing long-term growth, but a full price for now ...........22
Investing during the crisis ...............................................................................................23
The investments are paying off in April...........................................................................23
Financial advisors growth remains key ...........................................................................23
Opportunities ahead, non-domestic activities still in question ........................................24
Valuation .........................................................................................................................24
Unipol – Hold, TP Euro 1.1 - Lack of fuel.................................................................................28
Banking unit in a restructuring phase ..............................................................................29
An adequate capital and investment strategy .................................................................29
Non-life close to reaching the bottom, in our view .........................................................30
Development of the life segment is positive ..................................................................30
Valuation .........................................................................................................................31
Mapfre – Buy, TP Euro 2.7 - Moving in the right direction ......................................................34
Capital and debt moves in right direction........................................................................35
A capital increase would be slightly dilutive, eliminate capital concerns.........................35
Risks in Spain look well identified and largely priced in ..................................................36
Latin America offers a growth angle ...............................................................................36
US starting to produce profits.........................................................................................36
Valuation .........................................................................................................................37
Vienna Insurance – Hold, TP Euro 31.8 - Downgrade after the rally........................................40
A solid company .............................................................................................................41
Investments risks remain limited ....................................................................................41
CEE still a growth opportunity longer term, priced in for now........................................41
Non-life is not concerning but risks are on the downside ...............................................42
Austrian life business was weak despite sVersicherung.................................................42
Valuation .........................................................................................................................42
Azimut – Hold, TP Euro 6.3 – An equity market call ................................................................46
A lean business model ....................................................................................................47
Azimut earnings drivers – performance fees are back ....................................................47
Valuation .........................................................................................................................48
Banca Generali – Hold, TP Euro 5.2 – Resilient in tough markets ...........................................52
A diversified player..........................................................................................................53
Resilient numbers even in tough markets.......................................................................53
A balanced investment portfolio – no more concerns.....................................................53
Valuation .........................................................................................................................54

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