汇丰银行：巴西牛肉行业研究报告2009年7月

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We feel the worst of the crisis is over and
that the sector recovery will be led by the
more diversified players
􀀗 Recovering exports, falling cattle prices,
financing availability and the demise of
weaker players are driving a nascent
rebound in the sector
􀀗 The stronger remaining players, Marfrig,
JBS, and Minerva, are well poised to
benefit from improved fundamentals; we
downgrade JBS to N (V) from OW (V)
Brazil beef: a juicy investment option
We think the worst of the crisis in the Brazil beef sector is over
and that we are seeing the beginning of the recovery. Cattle
prices are falling mildly due to reductions in slaughtering
capacity by distressed players and rebuilding of the herd. Credit
is becoming more available for producers and for global buyers
of beef and Brazil’s government continues to support the sector
via equity and debt infusions by BNDES. We also see
indications of an incipient recovery in demand driven by
depleted inventories and global economic stability. Lastly,
Brazil’s domestic beef market has been resilient throughout the
crisis and growth continues.
Under today’s scenario, we are partial to diversification, both
geographic with respect to companies’ productive platforms and
the global reach of their exports. We believe that product
diversification, primarily among proteins and into highermargin
processed products, is a major positive as a way of
capturing consumer downtrading to less expensive proteins.
Geographic diversification gives companies the flexibility to
source product from the most cost effective location at a
particular point in time. A broad geographic reach gives
companies a diverse set of globally dispersed clients that help
minimize risks and better balance potential trade disruptions.
Marfrig is our favorite play, as we like its diversified productive
platform, its diversification into various proteins, and into
higher margin processed products. We believe Marfrig will be a
big beneficiary of the Perdigão Sadia merger. We continue to
like JBS’ global platform, yet we feel that its US operations are
pressured by economic weakness in the US. Lastly, Minerva,
the smallest player, has the weakest leverage ratios and a very
small international footprint, which should affect valuation.

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