美国猪肉行业研究报告2009年3月

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Contents
Pork Industry ...........................................................................................................................................................................................4
Summary and Recommendation ............................................................................................................................................................... 4
Industry Investment Thesis........................................................................................................................................................................ 4
Pork Supply Should Be Down in 2009, But Not as Much as the Market Expects ....................................................................................... 5
Slowdown in Global GDP Growth to Drive Down U.S. Exports in 2009 ..................................................................................................... 7
Higher Domestic Pork Supplies Will Pressure Cutout and Hog Prices in 2009 .......................................................................................... 9
Hog Producers Expected to Lose Money in 2009, Albeit at a Much Lower Rate...................................................................................... 12
Packers Should Have Another Solid Year in 2009, Albeit Below 2008 Levels ......................................................................................... 13
Retail Prices Should Also Trend Lower in 2009 ...................................................................................................................................... 14
Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL-NYSE) .............................................................................................................................................16
At a Glance.............................................................................................................................................................................................. 16
Summary and Recommendation ............................................................................................................................................................. 16
Key Investment Points............................................................................................................................................................................. 16
Risks to Our Rating ................................................................................................................................................................................. 17
Valuation ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 17
Earnings Outlook: EPS Growth of 14% in FY09...................................................................................................................................... 18
10% EPS CAGR Since 2004 Driven Mainly by Sales .............................................................................................................................. 20
Base Business Performance Has Been Below Normalized Levels .......................................................................................................... 22
Strong Balance Sheet and Cash Flow – Fuel for Growth or Conservatism? ............................................................................................ 24
Refrigerated Foods – FY09 EBIT Margins Projected Below Normalized Levels ...................................................................................... 26
JOTS – Expect Profits to Start to Rebound in Fiscal 2H09....................................................................................................................... 28
Sensitivity to Feed Costs - Turkey........................................................................................................................................................... 29
Two-Thirds Packaged Foods and Only One-Third Commodity = Low Risk.............................................................................................. 30
Hog Price Sensitivity – Processing Is Natural Hedge for Production........................................................................................................ 31
Normalized Earnings ............................................................................................................................................................................... 33
Ownership Structure................................................................................................................................................................................ 34
Stronger Profit Margin Is Key Driver of HRL’s Higher ROIC and ROE..................................................................................................... 35
Management Profile ................................................................................................................................................................................ 36
Protein Company Comps ........................................................................................................................................................................ 36
Financial Statements............................................................................................................................................................................... 37
Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD-NYSE)......................................................................................................................................................41
At a Glance.............................................................................................................................................................................................. 41
Summary and Recommendation ............................................................................................................................................................. 41
Key Investment Points............................................................................................................................................................................. 41
Risk to Our Rating ................................................................................................................................................................................... 42
Valuation ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 42
Earnings Outlook: Well Below Consensus, But Low Earnings Visibility ................................................................................................... 43
Enough Liquidity Under Revolver ............................................................................................................................................................ 45
Processed Meat Margins Seem to Have Peaked in FY08........................................................................................................................ 48
The Mystery of SFD’s Hedging Activities................................................................................................................................................. 50
Hog Price Sensitivity – Processing Is Natural Hedge for Production........................................................................................................ 52
Grain Price Sensitivity ............................................................................................................................................................................. 52
Convertible Issue Could Dilute Earnings by 7% ...................................................................................................................................... 53
SFD Could Earn $2.44 in a Normalized Environment .............................................................................................................................. 53
Balance Sheet and Cash Flow ................................................................................................................................................................ 54
Stronger Profit Margin Is Key Driver of Hormel’s Higher ROIC and ROE................................................................................................. 55
Management Profile ................................................................................................................................................................................ 56
Top Institutional Holders List ................................................................................................................................................................... 57
SFD Is the Most Leveraged Protein Company and Is Currently Losing Money........................................................................................ 58
Financial Statements............................................................................................................................................................................... 59

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关键词：行业研究报告 研究报告 美国猪肉 行业研究 Sensitivity 美国 研究报告 行业 猪肉

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