2009年12月日本机械行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2009年12月日本机械行业研究报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：130
        【目录或简介】：
Table of Contents
Intro: “Competitiveness” seen in manufacturing method............. 5
Japan ranks 8th overall – first in “capacity for innovation” and “production process
sophistication” ........................................................................................................................... 5
Conditions for Japan’s “competitiveness” .................................... 8
Summary – four conditions for “competitiveness” ................................................................... 8
Modeling Keyence’s and Fanuc’s “competitiveness” ............................................................... 8
Focus on “competitiveness” and “growth industries” ........................................................... 10
Valuation ....................................................................................... 13
Using P/E & P/B, DCF model, EV/EBITDA ................................................................................ 13
With P/B – ROE correlation at 0.63, also using DCF model ..................................................... 13
Risk factors.................................................................................... 17
Risks for machinery, shipbuilding & plant engineering sectors ............................................... 17
Company-specific risks ............................................................................................................ 17
Subsectors & companies to lead recovery ................................... 19
Subsectors to recover from the bottom at earlier stage… ...................................................... 19
Order for mechatronics, machine tools likely to remain the same .......................................... 19
Japanese version of “Young Report” and “architecture” ........... 25
International competitiveness as defined by the Young Report .............................................. 25
Japan’s competitiveness and corporate architectures as set forth in “New Industry
Promotion Strategy” ................................................................................................................ 26
Competitive advantages seen in Keyence and Fanuc .................. 28
Keyence’s profit margin is the top 5th, Fanuc’s 9th ................................................................... 28
Architecture: Mass customization is key.................................................................................. 29
Innovation: Key to maintaining competitiveness ...................................................................... 32
Competitive advantages thru technological innovations ............ 34
Japan leads the world in environment/energy-related patents ................................................ 34
Companies with environment/energy technologies in IEA’s ETP ............................................ 35
Competitive advantages seen in nuclear power generation, IGCC + CCS, heat pumps, etc. . 36
Competitiveness in manufacturing method ................................. 40
Agglomeration of advanced component industry, long-term employment and business, the
Toyota Production System ....................................................................................................... 40
Creating key technology and models to avoid price competition ............................................ 42
Competitiveness in sales and service (customer orientation) ..... 44
Market-in, market-out, latent needs ......................................................................................... 44
Models that emphasize greater customer orientation, as employed by Kubota and Daikin
Industries................................................................................................................................. 45
Individual companies and their competitive advantages ............ 47
In viewing competitive advantages, we considered the 4 factors: .......................................... 47
JGC (1963): Aggressively expanding its business domains ..................................................... 47
JSW (5631): World’s top maker of large forgings for nuclear power plants, etc. (global market
share of about 80%)................................................................................................................. 47
SMC (6273): Differentiating itself by creating pneumatic control systems and by its short
delivery times ........................................................................................................................... 48
Komatsu (6301): Leading in Chinese market. Based on “clusters of advanced component
manufacturers” ........................................................................................................................ 48
Kubota (6326): Leading small trucks, engines; and agricultural machinery for Asian markets. 49.
Daikin Industries (6367): Nurturing air conditioning professionals that have a high
commitment to customer service ............................................................................................ 49
Keyence (6861): Having the four factors for a competitive edge. ............................................ 50
Fanuc (6954): Based on mass customization ........................................................................... 50
MHI (7011): Among the top in energy/environmental technology ........................................... 50
KHI (7012): High customer orientation in heavy machinery majors ......................................... 50
Companies
Komatsu (6301) ........................................................................................................................ 53
Kubota (6326) ........................................................................................................................... 67
Daikin Industries (6367) ............................................................................................................ 82
Keyence (6861)......................................................................................................................... 96
Fanuc (6954) ........................................................................................................................... 109

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关键词：行业研究报告 研究报告 机械行业 行业研究 Architecture 日本 研究报告 行业 机械