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【出版时间及名称】：2009年12月美国零售连锁行业研究报告
【作者】：德意志银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：32
【目录或简介】：
December sales up; Promotions rational
Our Dec. Broadline index est is +2.2% vs. -2.2% in Dec. '08, as retailers benefit
from the extra shopping day before Christmas (approx. +200bp), as well as easier
comparisons (esp. for high-end retailers). Despite concerns that winter snow
might dampen Christmas sales, its effect was regionalized, widely
expected/planned for and pressed consumers to stop waiting for discounts given
lean inventories. A full recovery of EBIT margins is not priced-in; we recommend
JWN, KSS, JCP, SKS, and DDS.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research
is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access IR at
http://gm.db.com/IndependentResearch or by calling 1-877-208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE
LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Industry Update
Top picks
Nordstrom (JWN.N),USD38.39 Buy
Kohl's (KSS.N),USD55.56 Buy
Saks Inc. (SKS.N),USD6.91 Buy
Dillard's (DDS.N),USD19.86 Buy
J.C. Penney Company (JCP.N),USD27.03 Buy
Companies featured
Nordstrom (JWN.N),USD38.39 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) 1.80 1.82 2.50
P/E (x) 15.0 21.1 15.4
EV/EBITDA (x) 11.0 14.7 10.0
Kohl's (KSS.N),USD55.56 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) 2.89 3.17 3.90
P/E (x) 14.5 17.5 14.2
EV/EBITDA (x) 6.8 8.2 6.7
Saks Inc. (SKS.N),USD6.91 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) -0.70 -0.35 0.12
P/E (x) – – 59.7
EV/EBITDA (x) 101.0 10.1 5.1
Dillard's (DDS.N),USD19.86 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) -1.56 0.80 1.25
P/E (x) – 24.9 15.8
EV/EBITDA (x) 111.2 6.7 4.6
J.C. Penney Company (JCP.N),USD27.03 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) 2.54 1.04 1.61
P/E (x) 13.1 25.9 16.8
EV/EBITDA (x) 5.3 6.0 5.2
Global Markets Research Company
Inclement seasonal weather moderates investor expectations
We expect Dec. sales to be on or above plan for all of our Broadline retailers,
despite the two snow storms that hampered the East Coast during Super Saturday
& the Midwest during Christmas week. The storms were well anticipated, allowing
consumers to plan shopping around the storms, though sinking investors’ holiday
sales expectations & driving the S&P Retail index down 1.7% during the week
before the 21st. Main Street shopped early Sat. & online before returning to stores
after the snow was cleared (most of these regions are prepared for winter
storms). Additionally, WMT, TGT, KSS & M extended hours to accommodate
holiday shopping needs. Thus, when coupled with the extra shopping day before
Christmas this year, we don’t believe that the inclement weather will impact
overall Dec. sales. We continue to expect holiday sales to increase +1-2%, with
market share gainers such as JWN, KSS, and TGT prevailing best.
Retailers win the waiting game—and margins should benefit
Throughout the past year, consumers have shopped closer and closer to need or
event, and Christmas season 2009 was no different. The weaker-than-expected
Nov. sales now appear to have been a false negative on the holiday season, as
consumers waited until Dec. and even the final week before Christmas to
purchase gifts. Consumers likely anticipated more attractive discounts & deeper
markdowns as Christmas approached, similar to last year. However, inventory
levels entering 4Q were much better aligned to demand, mitigating the need to
take severe markdowns, even though sales came late. In fact, consumers ran
greater-than-usual risk of out-of-stocks, particularly of popular items/sizes. In the
end, holiday sales generally came in better-than-expected, as reflected in figures
such as the MasterCard SpendingPulse sales gain of +3.6% (ex-gas, autos)
covering the Thanksgiving through Christmas period (+1.0% excl. the extra day).
The combination of better-than-expected sales & aligned inventories should drive
healthy margins in 4Q.
Valuation & Risks
For the broadline group, our preferred valuation method is based on an historical
P/E basis. On a case by case basis, a stock’s valuation is compared to its historical
range, and where appropriate, a discount/premium is applied to reflect current
operating conditions. Investment risks include, but are not limited to, the
company's failure to achieve our earnings and revenue estimates, price
competition from other retailers, and merchandising errors. On a macroeconomic
level, risks include a slowdown in consumer spending.
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