2010年1月台湾化工行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月台湾化工行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：39
        【目录或简介】：

Taiwan Chemicals
Improving Demand Outlook;
Moving Nanya Plastics to OW
Petrochemical demand to recover with the global
economy in 2010: We believe petrochemical demand
will have bottomed in 2009 and is on track for a recovery
in 2010 in line with our economists’ forecast of a global
GDP rebound to 4.0% in 2010 from -1.1%. We are still
wary of the risk of oversupply but we believe this is
factored into the market and that any repeat of last
year’s delays to new capacity and/or lower than
expected operating rates at the new start-ups could
imply upside risk to our margin forecast. Indeed, recent
reports by ICIS of an unexpected production cut at
SABIC, could mean Jan/Feb supply to Asia is halved.
Improved outlook for Formosa Group in 2010: While
uncertainties and risks remain, we continue to favor the
Formosa Group (which includes all four stocks covered
in this report) due to its well-diversified product portfolio
and highly-efficient vertical integration, which should
help it to fend off competition from low cost producers in
the Middle East. In addition, we expect management to
restore high dividend payouts in 2010 following 2009e’s
profit recovery. We expect the cash yield for the
companies featured to increase from the 1.3%-2.7%
paid in 2009 to 2.7%-5.3% in 2010e. Moreover, the
signing of an Economic Cooperative Framework
Agreement (ECFA) between Taiwan and China could
result in a lower tariff on exports to China and thus boost
demand for Taiwanese petrochemicals.
OW Formosa Plastics and Nanya Plastics: We raise
our 2010e earnings for the Formosa Group companies
by 15-34% due to higher utilization rates (89% instead of
86%), and higher contributions from FPCC. Our new
forecasts are 23-35% above consensus estimates. We
upgrade NYP to OW because we expect it to post the
biggest profit growth of the Formosa sisters in 2010
thanks to tech subsidiaries turnaround. We retain an
OW rating on FPC based on a positive view on PVC. We
believe FCFC is fairly valued and thus remain EW.
FPCC is our only UW due to its high valuation vs. its
regional peers.

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关键词：行业研究报告 研究报告 化工行业 行业研究 Contribution 研究报告 台湾 行业 化工

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