2010年2月俄罗斯钢铁行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月俄罗斯钢铁行业研究报告
        【作者】：汇丰银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：29
        【目录或简介】：

We remain positive on Russian steel, but
switch our preferences: we upgrade
NLMK to Overweight (V), target USD36
from USD34, and downgrade Severstal to
Neutral (V), target USD13 from USD10
􀀗 Focus is back on vertical integration and
domestic growth; the recovery at
international operations is now well
recognised by the market
􀀗 We reiterate Overweight (V) ratings on
Evraz (target USD38 from USD34) and
MMK (USD16 from USD14)
We still like Russian steel
We like Russian steelmakers because of their high levels of
vertical integration, which in contrast to most Western steel
mills makes them relative beneficiaries from rising raw
material prices. They also offer a unique opportunity to play
both Western and domestic volume recovery. We expect
financials to improve in 2010 on the strength of both
volumes and prices. We have recently raised our steel price
assumptions to reflect increased forecasts for iron ore and
coking coal (see Metals & Mining Chartbook, 22 January),
which results in target price increases for all our companies.
While we still expect volume upside from international
operations, we believe the market has recognised this: the two
stocks offering the best international exposure, Severstal and
Evraz, have rallied by 67% and 35% over the past two months
against 20% and 4% for domestic players MMK and NLMK.
As this strong performance has erased much of the upside in
particular for Severstal, we downgrade to Neutral (V).
As a high-quality investment story, NLMK was one of the first
to recover from the bottom, but the shares have underperformed
significantly in the recent rally. This creates an opportunity to
invest in our view: we like its high margins, low costs, exposure
to both flat and long segments in Russia, integration with iron
ore and growth profile. Trading in line with the sector, NLMK
no longer looks expensive. Upgrade to Overweight (V).
We reiterate our Overweight (V) on Evraz: We think the
stock has not recovered to the extent its peers have and still
offers value. We still rate MMK Overweight (V) as we expect
gains from improvement in domestic demand and increased
vertical integration and upside from the Atakas project.

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关键词：行业研究报告 研究报告 行业研究 钢铁行业 俄罗斯 研究报告 行业 钢铁 俄罗斯