2010年3月俄罗斯钢铁行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月俄罗斯钢铁行业研究报告
        【作者】：荷兰国际集团
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：44
        【目录或简介】：
Contents
Investment case 3
Changes to our iron ore and coking coal price assumptions 5
Raw materials – implications for Russian steel producers 12
Model revisions 20
Steel industry review 25
Companies 30
Evraz Group ............................................................................................................31
Mechel.....................................................................................................................33
MMK........................................................................................................................35
NLMK ......................................................................................................................37
Severstal .................................................................................................................39
Disclosures Appendix 41

We now expect a sharp increase in international contract
prices for iron ore (+80%) and coking coal (+60%). With the
largest exposure to the mining segment, Mechel and Evraz
are our preferred plays in the sector.
Sector review
Russia
10 March 2010
Russian steel
Updated forecasts and target prices
Steel & other metals
TPs and ratings (US$)
Target price Rating
New Old New Old
EVR LI 47.4 33.1 BUY Buy
MTL US 34.8 23.5 BUY Buy
MMK LI 14.6 10.1 HOLD Hold
NLMK LI 39.0 28.7 HOLD Hold
SVST LI 15.8 7.9 HOLD Hold
Upside and 12m return
Price Upside12m return
(US$) (%) (%)
EVR LI 35.6 33 35
MTL US 25.5 37 39
MMK LI 13.0 13 14
NLMK LI 35.0 11 13
SVST LI 13.9 14 15
Pricing date: 8 March 2010
Preferred exposure: Mechel and Evraz. Among major Russian steel
holdings, Mechel and Evraz offer the largest exposure to the mining
segment, with its share in the groups’ 2010F EBITDA at 56% and 35%,
respectively. Mechel is well positioned to benefit from a long position in
coking coal. Evraz enjoys the highest level of vertical integration in the
Russian peer group, while control over 40% of Raspadskaya provides
exposure to the coking coal market.
Upgrade for bulk commodities. We revise upwards our assumptions
for bulk commodities, and we now assume an 80% increase in April 2010-
March 2011 contract prices for iron ore and a 60% increase for coking coal.
15% valuation discount. Sector wise, Russian steel producers trade at
c.15% discount to emerging markets peers based on 2011F EV/EBITDA
multiples, providing modest upside for the sector. According to our estimates,
Russian steel companies trade at an average 2011F EV/EBITDA of 5.6x,
compared with the average for emerging market peers of 6.6x.
Increase in earnings forecast and target prices. We raise our earnings
forecasts for Russian steel producers on the back of updated steel and raw
material price assumptions, with EBITDA forecasts for 2010F going up on
average by 19%. We revise upwards our target prices for Russian steel
companies and reiterate our BUY recommendations on Mechel and Evraz.

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关键词：行业研究报告 研究报告 行业研究 钢铁行业 俄罗斯 研究报告 行业 钢铁 俄罗斯

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