2010年3月欧洲化工行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月欧洲化工行业研究报告
        【作者】：荷兰国际集团
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：48
        【目录或简介】：
Contents
Investment case 3
The basics 5
Destocked? 6
Companies 14
Akzo Nobel ..............................................................................................................15
DSM ........................................................................................................................21
Solvay......................................................................................................................27
Tessenderlo.............................................................................................................33
Umicore ...................................................................................................................37
Disclosures Appendix 45

Investment case
Within the Benelux chemicals space we prefer the two companies with the least
commoditised portfolios and the largest exposure to emerging markets. We believe
this will help them to withstand margin pressure better and give more impetus to
volume growth beyond the end of the destocking effect. Our two picks are Akzo Nobel
and Umicore.
Chemicals volume growth is closely correlated to GDP. Not all end markets are equal
however, and so we believe Solvay – with its relatively large exposure to European
construction (late cyclical) – and Tessenderlo, for instance, will see limited further
volume growth. In the same vein we believe Akzo Nobel’s construction exposure in
Decorative is overstated, as less than 20% of paint volumes go into new build. Both
Akzo and Umicore have sizeable, local content, emerging market exposure (ie,
decorative paint sold in China is actually consumed in China and autocatalysts sold in
China are for local car production).
On a more positive note, taking it quarter by quarter, the destocking impact is
essentially complete and volumes – especially in Asia – are continuing to show
improvement. With volumes having improved from 1Q09 onward, where the
destocking effect was strongest in our view, the stage looks set for strong YoY volume
growth figures from 4Q09 to 2Q10, on the back of the absence of a destocking effect
alone.
Many investors worry about a possible margin squeeze in 2010, with raw materials
having risen (sharply) since the second half of 2009. By and large, most raw materials
have returned to 2008 levels. With volumes still 15-20% off from their peak, at the
current run rate we believe that in the best scenario for the less commoditised products
(Akzo Nobel, Umicore) – as long as raw materials do not move much higher from
where they are currently – the worst we can have is one quarter of margin pressure as
there is a time lag effect before costs are fully passed on. Companies with more
commodity products (Solvay, Tessenderlo) will in all likelihood experience more margin
pressure.
Benelux chemicals as a group have been underperformers over the past twelve
months, quarter and year-to-date, reflecting the fact that they are not the most cyclical
names. We believe the most cyclical names (Arkema, BASF, Lanxess, Rhodia) have
thus re-rated and more mid-cyclical quality names such as Akzo Nobel and Umicore
now offer interesting entry points.
Akzo Nobel trades at 6.2x/5.8x EV/EBITDA 2010/11F and 12.0x/10.5x PER 2010/11F,
which is a c.17% discount on all metrics. Future catalysts for the share price could
include an increase in guided cost savings and the disposal of National Starch and
Chemicals Pakistan (which combined, we believe, could fetch up to

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关键词：行业研究报告 行业研究 研究报告 化工行业 欧洲化 研究报告 行业 欧洲 化工