2010年3月美国石油开采行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月美国石油开采行业研究报告
        【作者】：MOTILAL OSWAL证券
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：80
        【目录或简介】：
We maintain our view that signs of upstream
discipline are required (e.g. lower activity,
production) before becoming more constructive
natural gas stocks. Data points from the past week
were particularly unsupportive of this view with both
ECA and FST highlighting more activity, production
growth, and economic plays (not less). While we remain
of the view that the gas forward curve has reached
attractive levels, we expect the equities to continue to
suffer from deteriorating sentiment.
Adding fuel to the fire, producers continue to
highlight the impact of efficiency gains and
high-graded resource on natural gas supply costs.
I. ECA noted that the majority of their asset base is
currently economic in a sub-$4/mcf price environment.
This is due to a combination of high quality resource (e.g.
Haynesville, deep Bossier, Montney) but also
established plays where incremental economics remain
attractive (e.g. Rockies, Canadian foothills). ECA plans
to double production over the next five years, adding ~3
Bcfe/d of production.
II. FST emphasized an increasingly diversified asset
position (e.g. East Texas, Mid-Cont, Canadian deep
basin) that can compete in the current gas price
environment. In the Granite Wash, although not the
highest impact play on a macro level, FST can generate
sufficient returns on the liquids component of the gas
stream alone, in the more liquids prone area of the play
to justify drilling. This is a growing trend within E&P’s,
with liquids revenues in wet gas plays subsidizing the
gas component of the stream.
Sentiment likely to deteriorate further before
improving. With the spring analyst meeting and
industry conference season underway, we see little
signs of respite for natural gas sentiment. Key catalysts
remain the pace of April / May storage injections and a
fear of a seasonal uptick in LNG imports. We look for
signs of discipline, particularly a falling gas directed rig
count, before revisiting our view.

Contents of The Weekly Explorer Page
Investment Perspective 2
Morgan Stanley Estimates vs. Consensus 3
Consensus EPS Revisions & Short Interest 5
Comparative Performance Tables 6
Investment Thesis 9
Commodity Macro 10
Commitments of Traders Report 11
Natural Gas Markets 12
Differentials 13
Supply & Demand 14
Fundamental Drivers 15
Switching Economics 16
US Power Market Metrics 17
Crude Oil Markets 18
Crude Fundamentals 19
US Gasoline Fundamentals 20
US Distillate Fundamentals 21
Chemical Markets 22
Hedges 23
GDP Forecast, Leading Indicators & Actuals 26
Publications & Content Index 27
Valuation Methodologies & Risks 28
Disclosure 29

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关键词：行业研究报告 研究报告 石油开采 美国石油 行业研究 美国 研究报告 行业 石油开采

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