2010年3月欧洲化工行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月欧洲化工行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根大通
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：110
        【目录或简介】：

Margins to face pressure as 2010 develops. We see a risk that 2009
‘windfall’ margin gains in European Chemicals are being underestimated
and/or misinterpreted as a structural shift in pricing power. Weakening
prices and rising input costs make it likely that at least some of this
gain will unwind in 2010. Companies that saw the greatest ‘net’
margin benefit in ‘09 were Clariant (+530bps), Akzo Nobel (+280bps),
Solvay (+220bps), DSM (+200bps) and Rhodia (+130bps).
• Volume expansion no longer able to ‘trump’ other factors. Our
volume index shows little sequential volume improvement in Q4,
following strong progress in Q2 and Q3. Should volume expansion
begin to slow through 2010, as restocking vs weak comps gives way to
a more staggered demand recovery, better cost absorption will no
longer provide major sequential margin uplift. Furthermore, volumes
remain 7% below the long-term average and 20% below the peak, in
Q4.
• Falling prices; rising costs. The recent decline in selling prices primarily
reflects falling input costs. Our pricing index points to Q4 average prices
6% below Q3, and 14% below the peak. Now that input costs are once
again increasing, we see a risk that low utilization rates will act as an
obstacle to firmer prices as competitors seek to fill idle facilities.
• Diversified chemicals offer limited scope for positive surprise.
Favouring structural over cyclical growth. Our mid-cycle valuation
analysis now indicates (5.7%) upside across the sector. With consensus
already anticipating average 2011 earnings just 2% below the peak, and
given the above near-term risks, we increasingly favour companies
with structural rather than cyclical growth combined with a proven
(long-term) pricing track-record, and hence upgrade our
recommendation on Croda to Overweight from Neutral.
• We are lowering our recommendation on Rhodia to Underweight
from Neutral and maintain our Underweight stance on Akzo Nobel
and Clariant. Within the Diversifieds we favour Yule Catto (OW -
valuation), Elementis (OW – valuation, restructuring), BASF, (N -
valuation/divi yield support) and Arkema (N - margin potential).

Table of Contents
Executive summary - Upgrade cycle may begin to reverse
in H2 2010..................................................................................6
Valuations up with events – upgrades required, but may not
be forthcoming .........................................................................8
Volume expansion moderating .............................................18
Price deflation to intensify.....................................................30
Input costs rising again .........................................................33
Prices and input costs may therefore combine to create
margin pressure .....................................................................36
Cash flow more muted in 2010..............................................37
Currencies may provide some relief.....................................38
Air Liquide...............................................................................40
Akzo Nobel..............................................................................41
Arkema ....................................................................................42
BASF........................................................................................44
Bayer .......................................................................................45
Clariant ....................................................................................46
Croda.......................................................................................47
DSM .........................................................................................49
Elementis ................................................................................50
Johnson Matthey....................................................................51
K+S ..........................................................................................52
Kemira Oyj ..............................................................................53
Lanxess ...................................................................................54
Linde........................................................................................56
Rhodia .....................................................................................57
Solvay......................................................................................58
Syngenta .................................................................................59
Umicore...................................................................................60
Victrex .....................................................................................61
Wacker Chemie.......................................................................62
Yara..........................................................................................63
Yule Catto................................................................................64
Appendix I: Changes to Bloomberg consensus estimates 65
Valuation Methodology and Risks ........................................68
The authors

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