2010年3月加拿大石油气行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月加拿大石油气行业研究报告
        【作者】：TD newcrest
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：58
        【目录或简介】：

We held our Third annual Engineering & Construction Conference on March 23 in
Toronto. The event featured 11 speakers from public infrastructure-related
companies, as well as Don Drummond, Chief Economist, TD Bank Financial Group.
Key recurring industry themes were as follows:
· Government Stimulus Spending to Peak in 2010, but Not Expected to
be a Boon for Most – Government infrastructure stimulus spending
measures appear to have resulted in little direct benefit for most of the
companies thus far. Moreover, although stimulus funding is expected to
peak in 2010, many of these firms do not expect to realize much in the
way of increased demand as a direct consequence of these efforts over the
coming year.

P3 Market Expected to Represent an Area of Continued Strength – The
public-private partnership (P3) market has represented an area of considerable
growth in recent years for many of the companies, and consensus expectations
are that this market will continue to exhibit strength over the next several years.
· Non-Resource Private Sector Showing Signs of Life, But Still Early Days –
A number of companies noted that private sector construction activity in Canada
has shown some modest signs of improvement over the last several months,
though the effects of material increases are not likely to be felt before 2011.
· Oil Sands and Mining Markets Have Improved, but Meaningful Gains
Generally Not Anticipated Until 2011 – Companies were generally quite
upbeat about the outlook for both oil sands and mining-related spending levels,
but significant gains are not expected to be realized until 2011.
· Most Companies on the Hunt for Acquisitions – Essentially all of the
companies indicated that they are currently looking at acquisitions as a means
of achieving expansion and growth.
· Income Trust Conversion and Distribution Related Matters – All trusts
commented on the topics of conversion and distributions, though no new
information was provided.
In addition, the Ontario government released its 2010-2011 budget last night. Our
overall reaction to the budget is negative with respect to infrastructure spending.
Total spending for 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 was reduced by a combined $3.2
billion from previously released estimates, and the government gave no specific
details about spending for subsequent periods.
We continue to like the longer-term outlook for the E&C group as a whole. Due to
valuation levels and/or near- to medium-term fundamentals, we have a more
cautious view on certain stocks, but we believe many others currently represent
attractive value. Aecon Group Inc. (ARE-T) represents our top pick within the
E&C space. While we believe that the outlook for SNC-Lavalin is generally
favourable, given the current valuation, we see insufficient upside to our target
over a 12-month time horizon to recommend the stock at present.

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