2010年3月欧洲饮料行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月欧洲饮料行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根大通
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：88
        【目录或简介】：
The European beverages sector looks fairly fully valued in terms of “mid
cycle” forward earnings multiples from both an absolute (14.7x 12M
forward PE) and relative perspective (25% premium to European market).
However we still think free cashflow yields look relatively attractive with
the sector on 7.5% in CY10E and 7.7% in CY11E.
• We have rolled forward and updated the WACC assumptions in our DCF
models and upgraded our price targets for ABI, Pernod Ricard, Heineken,
Campari, CEDC and Remy Cointreau by an average 5%. We introduce
new PTs for SABMiller, C&C Group, Britvic, Carlsberg and Diageo. In
terms of upside to our PTs, near term momentum and forecast risks we
pick ABI (28% upside to PT), SABMiller (11%) and Britvic (12%) as our
key buys in the sector.
• The combination of margin expansion, broadly favourable currency
movements, acquisitions and deleverage is driving robust double digit
earnings growth across the sector (24% weighted average in 2010E and
14% in 2011E) despite the anemic organic top line.
• We believe that “through the cycle” the organic top line of both beers and
spirits is comparable (at mid single digit) but that, in the absence of
“excess" cost inflation, the brewers can consistently expand organic
margins at a faster rate than spirits. Overall we see robust high single digit
organic EBIT growth driven by synergy capture, cost savings, easing input
cost pressures and less negative operational gearing drag for the brewers in
FY10E/FY11E but only mid single digit organic EBIT growth in spirits
(bar Remy Cointreau).
• Recent results from the major companies have pointed to well above
historical trend levels of FCF generation through squeezing working
capital and reducing capex. By end CY2011, we now see all companies
within our universe at or below the “ideal” capital structure ratios that
management’s have pointed to in the past.

Table of Contents
Executive Summary .................................................................3
Our key buys are ABI, SABMiller and Britvic.........................5
Valuation .................................................................................11
Brewers growing faster than spirits .....................................17
Improving cashflows driving rapid de-leverage ..................28
Growth is still driven by emerging markets .........................31
Company Profiles...................................................................35
Anheuser Busch InBev ..........................................................36
Britvic ......................................................................................38
C&C Group..............................................................................41
Campari ...................................................................................43
Carlsberg.................................................................................45
CEDC .......................................................................................48
Diageo .....................................................................................50
Heineken .................................................................................53
Pernod-Ricard SA...................................................................55
Remy Cointreau SA................................................................57
SABMiller ................................................................................59
Valuation Methodology and Risks ........................................62

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关键词：行业研究报告 饮料行业 研究报告 行业研究 Acquisitions 研究报告 行业 饮料 欧洲

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