2010年4月美国石油天然气开采行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月美国石油天然气行业研究报告
        【作者】：Collins Stewart Research
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：35
        【目录或简介】：
Good value remains in some stocks
Even allowing for a recent correction, the E&P sector is up by 10% since the
start of March. The stocks have responded to a combination of stronger crude
prices (+9% ytd) and the rally in the broader market. In addition, in our view the
past several months have seen a marked increase in investor appetite for
exploration risk. This has been best illustrated by the performance of
companies with the high gearing to exploration upside, such as Cairn in the
larger-caps (+23% ytd) and mid-cap Serica (+59% ytd).
The rally has left valuations no longer as compelling as they were as recently
as 1-2 months ago in our view. Nonetheless, several companies still stand out
as having both good valuation and material near-term newsflow catalysts. In
this report, we have updated our NAV estimates, recommendations and target
prices across the sector. Our top picks in the sector are as follows:
Large-cap (>$1bn):
Afren, TP 115p (unchanged): 21% upside to full NAV, strong
exploration potential and significant near-term production growth; the
change in Nigerian oil minister has created near-term uncertainty
Premier Oil, TP1550p (was 1500p): compelling valuation with 30%
upside to full NAV; prospect of sharply higher production post-2010,
and a big rise in exploration activity providing good catalysts in 2010
Tullow Oil, TP1400p (unchanged): fairly undemanding valuation
given the scale of the exploration programme; full details of the
Uganda farm-down & development plan could be a near-term catalyst
Mid-cap (<$1bn):
JKX Oil & Gas, TP360p (was 350p): production set to rise sharply
with end-2010 start of Russian output; good support from gas pricing
mechanisms and potential to grow the reserve base rapidly
Melrose Resources, TP425p (unchanged): highest upside to full
NAV in our coverage; conservatively run with increasing exploration
exposure and catalysts from impending government approvals
Salamander Energy, TP320p (unchanged): Asia focused, with good
diversity of its asset base and strong exploration potential. Well
above-average valuation upside to full NAV
Recommendation changes
Lundin Petroleum, Hold, TP Skr52 (was Buy, TP Skr71): valuations
look less compelling to us (8% upside to full NAV) following the spinoff
of UK assets, while exploration catalysts are biased towards 2H10
Serica Energy, Hold, TP 95p (was Buy, TP 90p): while Serica’s
near-term exploration programme still offers good upside potential, the
risk/reward balance looks less clear after the shares’ c.60% rise ytd.

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关键词：行业研究报告 石油天然气 天然气开采 研究报告 行业研究 美国 研究报告 行业 石油 天然气开采

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