2010年4月中国银行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月中国银行业研究报告
        【作者】：三星证券
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：35
        【目录或简介】：


Event: The PBoC released further 1Q10 loan growth figures showing that
growth of both infrastructure and small enterprises loans decelerated in 1Q,
while property loan growth significantly accelerated.
Impact: 1Q loan mix (see page 6) showed that: 1) activity in the real economy
accelerated; 2) property loans ate up most of the new loan quota; and 3)
recent government moves to curb speculative demand in the property sector
should help NIM-positive loan mix shift toward short-term and SME loans
going forward.
Infrastructure loan growth slowed rapidly: Infrastructure loan growth
slowed from 43% in 2009 to 33.3% in 1Q10, underperforming corporate
medium and long-term loan growth (39.8%), and suggesting acceleration of
manufacturing and industrial activities.
Property loans soar: Growth of property loans—developer loans +
mortgages—rose from 38.1% YoY in 2009 to 44.3% YoY in 1Q, and new
property loans (Rmb845.7bn) accounted for 33% of all 1Q new loans (vs 25%
in 2009). Among such loans, 38% were to developers and 62% for mortgages.
Growth of small-enterprise loans limited: On the corporate side, 1Q
growth of such loans slowed from 42% YoY in 2009 to 24% YoY (totaled
Rmb6.3tn)—15% of total system loans and only slightly outpacing system loan
growth. On the household side, new loans to small-business owners
(Rmb347.7bn, +58% YoY) accounted for 38% of new personal loans, down
from 52% in 1Q09.
Action: The moves to curb speculative demand in the property sector
focused on structural adjustment to credit/economic growth. We believe such
measures will be NIM/asset-quality positive for banks over the long-term.
The sector is trading at a 14% PB discount to the mid-cycle average, and we
believe recent share-price weakness from negative policy headwinds creates
good entry opportunities for investors seeking absolute return. However,
investors seeking alpha should stand aside until the visibility of inflation and
economic growth improves. BCOM and CCB remain our top picks.

Summary
3
Macro trends
4
Key revenue drivers
5
March new loans slowed; full year target achievable
5
1Q10 property loan growth accelerated notably
6
L/D ratio dropped
7
Mar deposit growth outpaced loan growth
8
SHIBOR remained low
9
Bond issuance surged; bond yield largely flat
10
1Q10 new WM products volume higher but mix weaker YoY
11
Bank card transaction value slightly slipped in Feb
12
Asset quality trends
13
NPL ratio and balance dual declined in 4Q09
13
New mortgage policies NIM-positive, offsetting volume pressure
14
Manufacturing sector interest coverage keep improving
15
Earnings momentum
16
Consensus upgraded CMB & Minsheng earnings
16
Financial summary
17
Operating comps
18
Valuation & performance
20
Trading range: 12-month forward PBR (prices as of Apr 21)
20
Trading range: 12-month forward PER (prices as of Apr 21)
21
Relative 12-month forward PBR valuations (prices as of Apr 21)
22
H to A-shares discount narrowed in April
24
Valuation comps
25
Key financial metrics
28

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关键词：行业研究报告 中国银行业 中国银行 行业研究 研究报告

这么贵什么时候能买起哦！

Unbelievable, are u seriuous to share it with ppl??

谢谢楼主分享 顶一个

Unbelievable, are u seriuous to share it with ppl??

杀了我吧，这么贵…不过就算下的了也看不懂…

开玩笑，，，，，，，

楼主和大家开玩笑吧？？
楼主不太懂得行情哦。。。

谢谢分享！！！！！

谢谢分享！！！！！