2010年4月加拿大传媒行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月加拿大传媒行业研究报告
        【作者】：加拿大皇家商业银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：28
        【目录或简介】：
RBC Media Spotlight
Expect More Normalized but Still Attractive
Risk-Adjusted Returns
Trends & Developments
• Investment thesis update - In our view, the "deep value" has been realized
in the Canadian media sector. Nevertheless, we continue to see good value
in a gradual economic recovery scenario with the potential for outsized
returns in a more robust economic recovery scenario. Advertising markets
in Canada – now an important buy signal – are finally showing signs of
recovery suggesting renewed revenue growth for the sector is around the
corner. Although this turn in the advertising cycle is not an inflection point
for Canadian media stocks given already solid share price appreciation over
the past 12 months, the prospect of sustained earnings growth combined
with FTM EV/EBITDA multiples that remain below the midpoints of
historical ranges, in our view, points to positive but more normalized
returns in the sector over the next 12 months. Importantly, the tailwind from
an advertising cycle that is still in the early stages of recovery makes these
returns very attractive on a risk-adjusted basis. Our best ideas are Thomson
Reuters (Top Pick) followed by Astral Media, Aeroplan,
Transcontinental and Worldcolor (which are Outperform ranked).
• What is now priced into the stocks - Given the solid share price
appreciation over the past 12 months, we examine what is now being priced
into the stocks and conclude there is still good value in the sector: (i) our
revenue growth assumptions still largely reflect a gradual economic
recovery scenario; (ii) under this scenario, the average implied total return
to our target prices for the stocks we rank Outperform or Top Pick is a
positive but more normalized +27% compared to +40% to 70% from
mid-2008 through mid-2009; (iii) our target EV/EBITDA multiples remain
below the midpoints of historical trading ranges suggesting to us that
valuations are far from being stretched; and (iv) there is still potential for
further multiple expansion through mid-cycle ranging from a full multiple
point for Worldcolor, Thomson Reuters and Astral to less than half a
multiple point at the other side of the spectrum.
• Ranking the "torque" in the sector - With renewed revenue growth
around the corner, many investors are looking to identify the stocks that
offer the best "torque" in the sector. We view torque as a function of: (i)
EBITDA upside which captures revenue growth and operating leverage;
and (ii) valuation upside which captures financial leverage and multiple
expansion. Under our methodology in this report, the stocks with the most
torque in our coverage universe at the moment are Transcontinental and
Worldcolor among the publishers and printers, and Corus and Astral among
the broadcasters.

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