2010年5月南非鸡肉行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年5月南非鸡肉行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根大通
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：32
        【目录或简介】：
The chicken industry was expecting a recovery in earnings due to the
decline in feed costs, especially maize, but softer demand during the 2009
Christmas (which led to pricing pressures) has eaten up the benefits of
declining costs.
• There is excess stock in the industry (high levels of production during
Christmas and lack of consumer demand) which should keep pricing under
pressure for the weak demand winter season. However, producers should
benefit from still declining feed costs (dependent on producer hedging).
• Soccer World Cup is a double-edged sword for the chicken industry in
our view. It could boost demand, which would be positive for stock
clearance, but it could cause imports to go up (importers could try to cash in
on increased demand), which could hamper the industry’s pricing power.
• We have decreased our earnings estimate for ARL’s and RBW’s FY10E
Diluted HEPS from 1303cps to 1029cps and 161cps to 128cps respectively
to factor in weak consumer demand during Christmas. Along the same lines
we have also decreased our earnings estimate for CBH’s and SOV’s
FY10E from 66cps to 41cps and 198cps to 29cps respectively.
• We see better prospects for the industry during 2HCY10 because of
declining costs, the low base of pricing comps of 2009 Christmas and the
consumer recovery.
• Our new target prices for ARL and RBW are 13,000cps (May11E) and
1850cps (May11E) respectively. For CBH and SOV our new target
prices are 385cps (May11E) and 1020cps (May11E) respectively.
• From a positioning point of view, we think juniors (CBH and SOV) offer
higher total returns, but with their gearing to prices, they will be more
negatively exposed to a pressured pricing environment in the winter
months. We prefer CBH over SOV because of its under-utilized capacity
and encouraging operational performance under new management.
Moreover, CBH's KFC contract is a good growth underpin, in our view.
• Amongst the majors we keep our preference for ARL over RBW
because of its safe dividend yield (forward yield of 6% JPMe) which
compensates for earnings volatility. Moreover RBW has negative gearing to
the decline in costs in its Food Service business (40-45% of the business).

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关键词：行业研究报告 研究报告 行业研究 respectively positioning 研究报告 行业 南非 鸡肉