2010年5月黎巴嫩银行行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年5月黎巴嫩银行行业研究报告
        【作者】：汇丰银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：80
        【目录或简介】：

Lebanese economic growth remains
robust despite political uncertainty
 High liquidity, improving asset quality
and regional expansion are key
attractions for banks under coverage
 We initiate coverage of Bank Audi (TP of
USD108 and OW(V)) and Blom Bank (TP
of USD120 and OW)
Recent cyclical indicators suggest the Lebanese economy
has been resilient in the face of the global financial crisis.
The latest official and IMF estimates indicate Lebanon’s real
GDP stood at 9% in 2009 and that good growth should
continue in 2010 – the IMF forecasts 6% for 2010e.
Lebanese banks enjoy high liquidity, as their low loan-todeposit
ratios of 26% in 2009 indicate; the average for MENA
banks is 90%. They also boast good management and regional
diversification potential, in our view.
Initiating coverage: We initiate coverage of Bank Audi with a
target price of USD108 and an Overweight (V) rating and
Blom Bank with a target price of USD120 and an Overweight
rating. Blom Bank is our top pick given its better profitability
and asset quality metrics. The stock currently trades at an
attractive 2010e P/BV multiple of 1.3x compared with a
MENA bank average of 2.4x. Based on our target price of
USD120, the stock offers shows a higher potential return of
28% vs. its latest market price compared with a return of 26%
for Bank Audi.
Risks: The key risks for our valuation on the Lebanese banks
include domestic and regional political instability.

Investment thesis 9
Sector landscape 13
Industry structure 13
Liquidity 17
High levels of liquidity 17
Bank Audi and Blom Bank 20
Credit extension 24
Domestic lending 24
Bank Audi and Blom Bank 27
Regional and international
expansion 30
Regional/international markets 30
Asset quality and solvency 36
Asset quality 36
Capital adequacy 37
Total return approach 38
Profitability drivers 40
Net interest margins, spreads 40
Non-interest income 44
Operating costs 44
Provisioning charge 45
ROE analysis: DuPont 46
Bank Audi 47
Current positioning 47
Investment positives 47
Investment negatives 48
Q1 2010 results 48
Earnings growth and drivers 49
HSBC versus consensus estimates 50
Valuation 51
Blom Bank 53
Current positioning 53
Investment positives 53
Investment negatives 54
Q1 2010 results 54
Earnings growth drivers for Blom Bank 55
HSBC estimates versus consensus forecasts 56
Valuation 56
Appendix I: Lebanese
economic indicators 59
Lebanese key economic indicators 62
Appendix II: Lebanese
Banking Sector 63
Key banking sector regulations 66
Appendix III: Key ratios:
Lebanese banks vs MENA 67
Balance sheet ratios 68
Income statement ratios 69
Asset quality ratios 70
Capital ratios 71
Valuation ratios 72
Disclosure appendix 76
Disclaimer 79
Contents

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关键词：行业研究报告 银行行业 研究报告 行业研究 黎巴嫩 银行 研究报告 行业 黎巴嫩