发布时间： 来源：人大经济论坛

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月亚太宏观经济研究报告
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：108
【目录或简介】：
Asia/Pacific Economics
Inside Asia/Pacific
Asia Pacific: Rising Risk of an Earlier-thananticipated
Policy Exit
Given the sharp acceleration in export growth, coupled
with recovering domestic demand boosted by strong
fiscal and monetary measures, we see rising risk of an
earlier-than-expected policy exit in the AXJ economies.
The key two risks to our gradual policy exit are a strong
rebound in exports and higher commodity prices; hence,
the upcoming trade data will be critical to watch.
China: Rebalancing, Not Overheating
The Chinese economy grew 10.7%YoY in real terms in
4Q09, recovering from the revised 9.1% in 3Q, yet
sequential momentum softened a tad to 2%QoQ from
2.5% in 4Q and 4.4% in 2Q. Aggressive policy stimulus
has successfully decoupled China from the deep
recession in developed markets in the aftermath of the
late-2008 financial crisis. The strong economic rebound,
which commenced in 2Q09 and was primarily policy
driven, has been sustained into 4Q09 and has become
more balanced between domestic vs. external, and
public vs. private growth drivers.
India: Moving to the “A” of the POTA Cycle
Every major policy/regulatory change in India must go
through a one- to three-year cycle of POTA (proposition,
opposition, treaty-consensus and action). We believe a
number of critical policy changes will reach the
implementation stage in 2010. We believe that some of
these measures are critical for lifting India’s sustainable
annual growth to 9%, which is the government’s target
rate.
For