发布时间： 来源：人大经济论坛

【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月大中华区宏观经济研究报告
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：38
【目录或简介】：
China: Déjà vu: Dissecting Heightened Uncertainty
There has been tremendous uncertainty about
economic and policy outlook of late. At such times, we
tend to look to recent history for guidance. However,
''The Autumn: Goldilocks” under our four-season
framework remains our base-case scenario. While the
heightened uncertainty of late has already taken its toll
on the stock market, the rather violent market reaction
since the beginning of the year is unwarranted, in our
view. We endorse the investment theses recently put
forward by our equity strategy team.
Hong Kong: Continued Recovery in 4Q09;
Forecasts Upgraded
The Hong Kong economy reclaimed positive YoY
growth in real terms, at 2.6%, after contracting for four
straight quarters. On a QoQ seasonally adjusted basis,
the economy grew 2.3% (+9.5% annualized), also much
stronger than we expected. Thereby, we are lifting our
2010 GDP growth forecast to 4.5% from 3.8%.
Nevertheless, our new forecast remains more
conservative than consensus.
Taiwan: Pleasant Surprise in 4Q09 GDP
Much stronger than expected, Taiwan GDP growth
soared to +9.2% YoY in 4Q09, surging steeply from the
revised -1% in 3Q. Therefore, annual 2009 GDP
averaged -1.9% YoY vs. +0.7% in 2008. The biggest
surprise was from the reaccelerating momentum in 4Q,
given the fading effects of the supportive public stimulus
measures. Overall, we expect the growth impetus in
2010 to be supported more by the recuperating
domestic economy than by external demand, and we
believe the government should come up with more
pro-growth measures to stimulate the domestic
economy.