发布时间： 来源：人大经济论坛

【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月全球宏观经济研究报告
【作者】：摩根大通
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：88
【目录或简介】：
Global Data Watch
Economic Research
April 16, 2010
www.morganmarkets.com
• Final sales took off last quarter, led by a surge in capital spending
• With demand growing rapidly inventory restocking cycle remains in infancy
• Policy responses mostly cautious in booming EM Asia
• Market concerns about Greece focusing on medium-term solvency
• Next week: a bounce in US durables and monetary tightening in India
Bruce Kasman
(1-212) 834-5515
bruce.c.kasman@jpmorgan.com
JPMorgan Chase Bank NA
David Hensley
(1-212) 834-5516
david.hensley@jpmorgan.com
JPMorgan Chase Bank NA
Joseph Lupton
(1-212) 834-5735
joseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan.com
JPMorgan Chase Bank NA
It’s in the legs
Our central macroeconomic view is that the global upturn now completing its
first full year has “legs” and that synchronized above-trend growth can be sustained
for at least another year. Certainly, recent news has been supportive as
significant upward surprises to Asian 1Q10 GDP readings and solid activity
reports for March continue to push our 2010 global growth estimates higher.
The latest forecasts place 1H10 GDP gains at an annualized 3.7% (4.6% using
PPP weights)—a pace in line with global growth during its robust phase of expansion
over 2005-7.
The current pace of growth is, of course, not always a good guide for what lies
around the corner. As such, it important to look past the growth numbers and
assess whether the key components of our view are on track to propel the global
economy forward even as unique drags related to the financial crisis temper
the pace of growth. At present, these components appear to be falling nicely
into place.
• Private sector behavior is now lifting demand. Although fiscal policy provided
a temporary spark for demand to lift last year, this spark has turned the
tide in private behavior away from retrenchment. As a result, global final
demand is accelerating even as fiscal supports wane. Consumer spending
growth has remained solid, partly on the back of a turn in business spending
and hiring. This turn in business behavior is taking place across the globe
and appears to be generating a bounce in capital spending. In fact, a sharp
rise in capital goods shipments has lifted our proxy of global final sales
growth to a 9.7% annualized pace over the latest three months—its fastest
gain in over a decade.
• The restocking cycle has only just begun. Much of the lift in growth over
the past year came from production adjustments by firms that had underestimated
demand trends. However, even with 12% annualized gains in global
Contents
Economic Research note
Welcome to opportunistic reflation 11
Tight US state and local finances
forever 13
Greek support mechanism: money
ready to be disbursed 15
Japan: capex finally igniting to
boost growth this fiscal year 19
China: 2010 trade balance should
still be in surplus 21
RBNZ to tweak rhetoric in April
policy statement 23
Indonesia’s trade surplus fired up
by energy-related exports 25
Vietnam: inflation to hit double
digits, but should not run away 27
Global Economic Outlook Summary 4
Global Central Bank Watch 6
The J.P. Morgan View: Markets 7
Selected recent research from
J.P. Morgan Economics 10
Data Watches
United States 29
Euro area 37
Japan 43
Canada 47
Mexico 49
Brazil 51
Andeans 53
United Kingdom 55
Russia 59
Turkey 61
Australia and New Zealand 63
China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan 67
Korea 71
ASEAN 73
India 77
Regional Data Calendars 80