2010年4月中国宏观经济研究报告
发布时间：
来源：人大经济论坛
【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月中国宏观经济研究报告
【作者】：BNP百富勤
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：44
【目录或简介】：
Targeting speculation
􀂃 Statistics confirm expectations of accelerating growth: China NBS estimates 1Q10
GDP to have grown 11.9% in real terms with a 57.0% contribution from investment,
52.0% from consumption, and a negative 9.9% contribution from net exports. While
domestic demand increased by 13.4% in 1Q10, net export demand plunged 44.4%.
􀂃 Government does not see current growth as overheating: The government
attributes the current accelerating growth rate largely to the effects of the macro
stimulus policy and a low base, and believes the average growth rates for the first
quarters in 2009-10 are still lower than those for the first quarters of 2000-08.
􀂃 Government indicates strict control over new investment projects: Although
national FAI slowed to 25.6% in 1Q, the outstanding investment budget still rose by
30.4%, the newly started investment budget increased 34.5%, and investment capital
supply surged 38.7%. Investment growth momentum could go far beyond the
sustainable level if there are no effective controls.
􀂃 Concerns on high inflation are increasing: Although the March CPI moderated to
2.4% y-y from 2.7% y-y in February and fell by 0.7% m-m, the GDP deflator in 1Q rose
to 4.8%, the import price index increased 14.6% in January-February (import prices of
energy and commodities were up 30-60% in 1Q), and the rise in food prices intensified
on the severe and prolonged drought in the five southwestern provinces. In addition,
labour costs and regulated prices are on an upward trend.
􀂃 Rampant rise in housing prices fuels social complaints and reduced confidence
in government: National housing sales increased by 35.8% in volume and 57.7% in
value in 1Q10 on top of the 44% increase in volume and 80% increase in value in 2009.
This implies unit housing prices increased by16.1% y-y in 1Q against a 25.3% y-y
increase in 2009. Housing prices in tier-1 and top tier-2 cities are clearly in a bubble.
􀂃 Most robust tightening to suppress property speculation: Political will is formed to
curb property speculation; the government announced its most aggressive policy
tightening in terms of mortgage control, land supply and threats of a property tax to curb
speculation. The local governments are held politically accountable for boosting public
housing supply and implementing property policies to curb speculation. Property sales
and prices to correct significantly by 2H and cool growth.
􀂃 Not expecting general tightening policy from government: With current growth not
seen as overheating, uncertainty over global recovery and still low CPI, policy tightening
and adjustment would be structural, incremental, and gradual, targeting property and
local government investments. Monetary tightening would focus on quantitative control
and administrative measures rather than aggressive rate hikes.
􀂃 US-China RMB dispute should have settled down for the time being: The US
should be clear on China’s official stance on the RMB after President Hu talked to
President Obama in Washington DC on 12 April. We maintain our call on the RMB. We
expect no revaluation or re-rating but see a return to the managed floating system in the
middle of the year. The RMB floating band would still be 0.5% daily at first and RMB
could appreciate by 3% against the US dollar by the end of 2010 and some 5% over the
next 12 months.
Contents
1) Structural overheating.............................................................................................................................................................. 4
Statistics confirm China’s accelerating growth................................................................................................... 4
China structurally overheating........................................................................................................................... 4
To strictly control new investment projects ........................................................................................................ 5
Concerns on high inflation intensify ................................................................................................................... 6
Policy to suppress housing speculation ............................................................................................................. 6
RMB dispute settling down for the time being.................................................................................................... 6
2) 1Q Economics........................................................................................................................................................................... 8
3) Property tightening in full force............................................................................................................................................. 12
State Council Political Determination............................................................................................................... 12
Property cooling expected in 2H ...................................................................................................................... 13
4) RMB managed floating: why limited appreciation ................................................................................................................ 16
5) Macroeconomic monitors ...................................................................................................................................................... 18
GDP growth..................................................................................................................................................... 18
Industrial performance..................................................................................................................................... 18
Sources of Growth........................................................................................................................................... 24
Money and Inflation ......................................................................................................................................... 29
Market performance and rates ......................................................................................................................... 32
6) Appendices.............................................................................................................................................................................. 36
12-Months Major Economic Indicators............................................................................................................. 36
12-Month Major Industrial Products ................................................................................................................. 38
Industrial Profitability ....................................................................................................................................... 39
Urban Fixed Asset Investment Growth By Sector............................................................................................ 40
BNP Paribas Forecast Of Major Economic Indicators ..................................................................................... 41
【作者】：BNP百富勤
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：44
【目录或简介】：
Targeting speculation
􀂃 Statistics confirm expectations of accelerating growth: China NBS estimates 1Q10
GDP to have grown 11.9% in real terms with a 57.0% contribution from investment,
52.0% from consumption, and a negative 9.9% contribution from net exports. While
domestic demand increased by 13.4% in 1Q10, net export demand plunged 44.4%.
􀂃 Government does not see current growth as overheating: The government
attributes the current accelerating growth rate largely to the effects of the macro
stimulus policy and a low base, and believes the average growth rates for the first
quarters in 2009-10 are still lower than those for the first quarters of 2000-08.
􀂃 Government indicates strict control over new investment projects: Although
national FAI slowed to 25.6% in 1Q, the outstanding investment budget still rose by
30.4%, the newly started investment budget increased 34.5%, and investment capital
supply surged 38.7%. Investment growth momentum could go far beyond the
sustainable level if there are no effective controls.
􀂃 Concerns on high inflation are increasing: Although the March CPI moderated to
2.4% y-y from 2.7% y-y in February and fell by 0.7% m-m, the GDP deflator in 1Q rose
to 4.8%, the import price index increased 14.6% in January-February (import prices of
energy and commodities were up 30-60% in 1Q), and the rise in food prices intensified
on the severe and prolonged drought in the five southwestern provinces. In addition,
labour costs and regulated prices are on an upward trend.
􀂃 Rampant rise in housing prices fuels social complaints and reduced confidence
in government: National housing sales increased by 35.8% in volume and 57.7% in
value in 1Q10 on top of the 44% increase in volume and 80% increase in value in 2009.
This implies unit housing prices increased by16.1% y-y in 1Q against a 25.3% y-y
increase in 2009. Housing prices in tier-1 and top tier-2 cities are clearly in a bubble.
􀂃 Most robust tightening to suppress property speculation: Political will is formed to
curb property speculation; the government announced its most aggressive policy
tightening in terms of mortgage control, land supply and threats of a property tax to curb
speculation. The local governments are held politically accountable for boosting public
housing supply and implementing property policies to curb speculation. Property sales
and prices to correct significantly by 2H and cool growth.
􀂃 Not expecting general tightening policy from government: With current growth not
seen as overheating, uncertainty over global recovery and still low CPI, policy tightening
and adjustment would be structural, incremental, and gradual, targeting property and
local government investments. Monetary tightening would focus on quantitative control
and administrative measures rather than aggressive rate hikes.
􀂃 US-China RMB dispute should have settled down for the time being: The US
should be clear on China’s official stance on the RMB after President Hu talked to
President Obama in Washington DC on 12 April. We maintain our call on the RMB. We
expect no revaluation or re-rating but see a return to the managed floating system in the
middle of the year. The RMB floating band would still be 0.5% daily at first and RMB
could appreciate by 3% against the US dollar by the end of 2010 and some 5% over the
next 12 months.
Contents
1) Structural overheating.............................................................................................................................................................. 4
Statistics confirm China’s accelerating growth................................................................................................... 4
China structurally overheating........................................................................................................................... 4
To strictly control new investment projects ........................................................................................................ 5
Concerns on high inflation intensify ................................................................................................................... 6
Policy to suppress housing speculation ............................................................................................................. 6
RMB dispute settling down for the time being.................................................................................................... 6
2) 1Q Economics........................................................................................................................................................................... 8
3) Property tightening in full force............................................................................................................................................. 12
State Council Political Determination............................................................................................................... 12
Property cooling expected in 2H ...................................................................................................................... 13
4) RMB managed floating: why limited appreciation ................................................................................................................ 16
5) Macroeconomic monitors ...................................................................................................................................................... 18
GDP growth..................................................................................................................................................... 18
Industrial performance..................................................................................................................................... 18
Sources of Growth........................................................................................................................................... 24
Money and Inflation ......................................................................................................................................... 29
Market performance and rates ......................................................................................................................... 32
6) Appendices.............................................................................................................................................................................. 36
12-Months Major Economic Indicators............................................................................................................. 36
12-Month Major Industrial Products ................................................................................................................. 38
Industrial Profitability ....................................................................................................................................... 39
Urban Fixed Asset Investment Growth By Sector............................................................................................ 40
BNP Paribas Forecast Of Major Economic Indicators ..................................................................................... 41
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