VEC估计结果如下,不知道如何写协整方程,因为有三个协整关系,所以又三个方程,但是出来的结果不知道要怎么写,还有VEC方程怎么写也不清楚,误差修正项的系数是多少、检验结果是否显著,要怎么看呢?小弟是计量新手,有很多不懂的,望各位大侠帮忙解答一下,不尽感激(*^__^*)
Vector Error Correction Estimates
Date: 07/25/12 Time: 22:14
Sample (adjusted): 1983 2010
Included observations: 28 after adjustments
Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ]
Cointegrating Eq: CointEq1 CointEq2 CointEq3
LNGUI(-1) 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000
LNPGDP(-1) 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000
LNPGDP2(-1) 0.000000 0.000000 1.000000
LNSSL(-1) -0.115329 -0.402501 -4.618520
(0.03458) (0.07285) (1.08461)
[-3.33535] [-5.52524] [-4.25824]
C 1.060205 -7.138005 -52.03107
Error Correction: D(LNGUI) D(LNPGDP) D(LNPGDP2) D(LNSSL)
CointEq1 0.107414 0.684547 12.04644 0.015450
(0.98731) (0.47944) (7.25194) (3.33017)
[ 0.10880] [ 1.42782] [ 1.66113] [ 0.00464]
CointEq2 -0.366021 -1.686595 -28.09565 11.23536
(1.84028) (0.89364) (13.5172) (6.20724)
[-0.19889] [-1.88733] [-2.07851] [ 1.81004]
CointEq3 0.055230 0.127439 2.160691 -0.745645
(0.14847) (0.07210) (1.09055) (0.50079)
[ 0.37199] [ 1.76759] [ 1.98129] [-1.48893]
D(LNGUI(-1)) -0.790092 -0.154483 -4.045586 -2.254520
(0.75179) (0.36507) (5.52204) (2.53578)
[-1.05095] [-0.42316] [-0.73263] [-0.88908]
D(LNGUI(-2)) -0.296292 -0.577430 -9.704079 -0.167243
(0.76454) (0.37126) (5.61571) (2.57880)
[-0.38754] [-1.55531] [-1.72802] [-0.06485]
D(LNGUI(-3)) -0.469817 -0.397637 -6.413532 1.546013
(0.47784) (0.23204) (3.50985) (1.61176)
[-0.98320] [-1.71365] [-1.82730] [ 0.95921]
D(LNGUI(-4)) -0.489109 -0.035354 -1.093235 -1.386087
(0.39871) (0.19361) (2.92857) (1.34483)
[-1.22674] [-0.18260] [-0.37330] [-1.03068]
D(LNPGDP(-1)) -4.897796 11.02444 172.7176 -47.14145
(12.4169) (6.02966) (91.2044) (41.8821)
[-0.39445] [ 1.82837] [ 1.89374] [-1.12558]
D(LNPGDP(-2)) 13.75492 1.928189 44.45909 2.964546
(6.21096) (3.01605) (45.6206) (20.9495)
[ 2.21462] [ 0.63931] [ 0.97454] [ 0.14151]
D(LNPGDP(-3)) -1.821540 0.007644 26.30803 -14.91387
(9.03764) (4.38868) (66.3830) (30.4838)
[-0.20155] [ 0.00174] [ 0.39631] [-0.48924]
D(LNPGDP(-4)) 17.00945 17.72396 274.6850 -75.06875
(18.7244) (9.09258) (137.534) (63.1572)
[ 0.90841] [ 1.94928] [ 1.99722] [-1.18860]
D(LNPGDP2(-1)) 0.249853 -0.688433 -10.86660 2.725714
(0.82662) (0.40141) (6.07169) (2.78819)
[ 0.30226] [-1.71504] [-1.78972] [ 0.97759]
D(LNPGDP2(-2)) -0.899996 -0.152722 -3.403368 -0.254837
(0.44812) (0.21761) (3.29154) (1.51151)
[-2.00837] [-0.70182] [-1.03397] [-0.16860]
D(LNPGDP2(-3)) 0.104274 -0.013767 -2.133316 0.895527
(0.67017) (0.32543) (4.92250) (2.26047)
[ 0.15559] [-0.04230] [-0.43338] [ 0.39617]
D(LNPGDP2(-4)) -1.303069 -1.248584 -19.36626 4.949825
(1.34053) (0.65096) (9.84646) (4.52161)
[-0.97205] [-1.91805] [-1.96682] [ 1.09470]
D(LNSSL(-1)) 0.066206 0.064869 1.258419 -0.144101
(0.16693) (0.08106) (1.22616) (0.56307)
[ 0.39660] [ 0.80022] [ 1.02631] [-0.25592]
D(LNSSL(-2)) 0.106895 0.087906 1.470952 -0.334916
(0.11219) (0.05448) (0.82402) (0.37840)
[ 0.95283] [ 1.61361] [ 1.78508] [-0.88508]
D(LNSSL(-3)) 0.152987 0.025263 0.486576 0.067724
(0.06452) (0.03133) (0.47393) (0.21764)
[ 2.37105] [ 0.80630] [ 1.02667] [ 0.31118]
D(LNSSL(-4)) 0.104991 0.005910 0.145998 0.036945
(0.04602) (0.02235) (0.33806) (0.15524)
[ 2.28119] [ 0.26443] [ 0.43187] [ 0.23798]
C 0.205033 0.043488 0.877057 1.428631
(0.17079) (0.08294) (1.25449) (0.57607)
[ 1.20049] [ 0.52435] [ 0.69914] [ 2.47994]
R-squared 0.875433 0.893644 0.898234 0.947941
Adj. R-squared 0.579585 0.641047 0.656538 0.824299
Sum sq. resids 0.008025 0.001892 0.432959 0.091300
S.E. equation 0.031672 0.015380 0.232637 0.106829
F-statistic 2.959064 3.537833 3.716389 7.666861
Log likelihood 74.47337 94.69968 18.64014 40.43100
Akaike AIC -3.890955 -5.335691 0.097133 -1.459357
Schwarz SC -2.939380 -4.384117 1.048707 -0.507782
Mean dependent 0.016623 0.087725 1.298992 0.098572
S.D. dependent 0.048847 0.025671 0.396953 0.254862
Determinant resid covariance (dof adj.) 2.30E-14
Determinant resid covariance 1.53E-16
Log likelihood 350.9083
Akaike information criterion -18.49345
Schwarz criterion -14.11621